FXUS63 KDLH 150525 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return tomorrow, with Wisconsin expected to get between a tenth and quarter inch. Winds and gales are expected with this system. - Dry, warm conditions return on Saturday into early next week. - Next chance for precipitation will be mid to next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging will become the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR stratus still envelopes much of the region this evening with a small clearing from BRD to HYR. However, cloud cover is already starting to fill in over this clearing. Rain is expected to enter from the west by late morning and spread east through the remainder of the TAF period. HYR will see the most steady state rain with areas west and north getting a glancing blow before showers become more scattered in nature through the evening hours. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light winds and waves around 1 foot will prevail through tonight before winds turn southwesterly Thursday. A cold front crossing the lake Thursday night into Friday brings a sharp wind switch to the northwest with gales to around 40 knots. Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally reaching 8 feet, with outer Apostle Islands waves reaching 5 to 8 feet and occasionally 10 feet. A Gale Watch is in effect for all nearshore zones from late Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds diminish Friday evening, but strong southwest winds will increase again on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Calm and moist conditions will persist through Thursday as rain chances spread across the area. After the cold front passes, northwest winds will strengthen Friday morning, ushering in drier air with minimum afternoon relative humidity between 30 and 40 percent and gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Fire weather concerns peak on Saturday as afternoon relative humidity drops to 25 to 35 percent and southwest winds gust 20 to 30 mph. Wind timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through on Saturday. Afterwards, mild, dry weather continues into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML