FXUS63 KDLH 220556 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening. - Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today. - Chilly Sunday and Monday mornings with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time. - Next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A low pressure system to our north continues to influence our weather today. A second cold front is expected to drop down into the Northland from western Ontario this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While there is a little bubble of instability ahead and along with this front, shear is somewhat limited around 20-30knots. No severe storms are expected, but a couple stronger storms capable of producing up to penny size hail are possible, especially for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. Any precipitation activity should come to an end through the evening and overnight. Into the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to morph into an elongated cut off upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario. This will bring northwesterly flow and drier air back into our region. Temperatures should largely be around normal during the day. Lower dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies could lead to a chilly night Saturday into Sunday morning with overnight lows in the 40s possible - a couple overachieving localized cold spots might see some high 30s again. Global models continue to point towards another upper level trough with a preceding shortwave wandering across the Canadian Plains and into our neck of the woods early next week. This could bring scattered rain chances back to the Northland Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on how these chances play out, areas of the Northland will likely continue to deal with the ongoing drought rigmarole as the best rainfall amounts could be hit or miss. Temperatures stay around average through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few remnant showers are moving out of north-central Wisconsin early during the current overnight as a cold front moves through. Behind this, expect clearing skies with very patchy fog potential in the early morning. Have included some MVFR fog mention at KHYR. However, farther behind the front winds may stay just strong enough above calm to prevent denser fog development at other terminals. Latest weather model guidance shows a 20% or less chance of fog with visibility of 1 mile or less at DLH/HIB/BRD/HYR. If winds go calm, these probabilities may increase, especially for BRD where showers and thunderstorms occurred this past evening. Gusty northwesterly winds increase this morning through early evening, with gusts to around 20-25 kts along with some diurnal cumulus developing late this morning through early evening at most terminals. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light westerly winds are expected today and Saturday, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15knots possible. Sunday, expect north to northeasterly winds overnight, becoming an onshore lake breeze in the afternoon. There could be some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, but no severe weather is expected. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area this afternoon and evening. This could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms as it arrives, most likely for northern MN and the Borderlands. No severe weather is expected, but a couple stronger storms are possible. As that front passes, northwesterly flow and drier air return. Expect afternoon RH on Saturday and Sunday to fall into the 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible, driest on Sunday. Some gustier post-frontal northwest winds are possible on Saturday with afternoon sustained winds of 8-12mph and gusts of 15-20mph. Winds should be fairly light on Sunday. Moisture should return into Monday/Tuesday as our next chance of rain arrives early next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens