FXUS63 KDTX 232356 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 756 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers into tonight. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers should conclude by 00Z at TAF sites on the backside of the trough. Cold northwest flow is expected to support scattered low/mid clouds through tonight, but should remain predominately VFR ceilings. Winds will continue out of the northwest this evening with gusts decreasing back towards 10 knots or below. Subtle shift towards the westerly direction late tonight will turn back towards the NW for tomorrow afternoon as gusts pick back up to around 25 knots. Ceilings hold to around 4-5kft during the morning and afternoon peak heating period. D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms expected tonight or tomorrow. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 DISCUSSION... Stacked low pressure system spinning just to our east over southern Ontario will lift northeast into Quebec overnight. We're dealing with cold advection on the backside of the low today with a strong mid level wave passing over this afternoon before the low finally departs. Atmosphere utilizing the low level moisture one last time this afternoon with a round of scattered showers before ridging pushes in and dries out the mid levels ending precip chances later this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows around 250 J/kg of CAPE mainly in the Thumb with a band of low level convergence stretching from MBS to PHN. This has been enough to generate some showers in the area. Weak mid level lapse rates and little instability should help minimize much of any lightning. Cool night in store as dewpoints have already fallen to around 50 and even the mid 40s across northern MI. Once the diurnal clouds mix out we should clear out for the most part. Questionable area will be the eastern Thumb where the cloud shield from the upper low continues to reach back toward the area. Clouds would help hold those temps up a few degrees if the clouds never release. Surface high builds in tonight for Monday and Tuesday while upper level heights also inch upwards. We'll keep the northwesterly flow Monday helping to hold highs temps on the cool side again in the mid 70s, but the ridge axis passes on Tuesday allowing for some warmer return flow to get us back up toward 80. Next trough affect the region mid week with a warm front pushing north of the area Tuesday evening tied to a low passing through the northern Great Lakes. Upper level waves start ejecting out of the trough over the region Wednesday leading to increasing chances of rainfall before the main trough axis and cold front sweep through early Thursday. MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist through tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots are expected during this window, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots through this evening, focused mainly across north-central and central Lake Huron. Given the lower confidence for any longer duration gale potential, will continue to preclude any issuance of gale products. Increasing coverage of rain showers will be likely tonight into tomorrow morning across Lake Huron, including a very low chance for waterspouts along any convergence axis. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes Monday evening, centering over the region by Tuesday. This will diminish wind speeds tomorrownight, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.