FXUS63 KDVN 072318
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
618 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms
  Wednesday night and Thursday. 

- Building heat this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quiet weather is expected into tonight and Wednesday with high
pressure gradually shifting to our southeast into the Ohio
Valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s and given the humid
conditions there could be some patchy shallow fog in favored 
low-lying locations. For Wednesday, expect another very warm 
July day with highs generally in the mid 80s to around 90 
degrees, with peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 80s to 
mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Upper level pattern to transition to a more zonal flow, with 
several shortwaves moving through by the end of the work week.
During the day on Wednesday, the active storm track will remain
north of the area over MN and WI, as a cool front drops south 
into IA. While forcing along and behind the front is not overly 
impressive, scattered showers/storms are still forecast to 
develop aided by 30-40kt mid-level flow, dropping southeast 
closer to the northwest portions of the CWA Wednesday night/early
Thursday. The question becomes will they actually reach our 
area before dissipating and CAM guidance is mixed. Better 
synoptic lift will be displaced to the north and to the west of 
the CWA, but if storms do reach the northern CWA they will occur
in a high PW+sufficient thermodynamic environment to support a 
few isolated strong to severe storms. RAP forecast soundings 
also support this idea and still has DCAPE values around 600 
J/Kg at 03z near the Hwy 20 corridor. Not all areas will see 
rain however and there will be many dry hours during the day 
Thursday.

The aforementioned cool front to drop south and stall out
somewhere over the southern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon
while another stronger shortwave shown by several deterministic
and ensemble solutions moves across Iowa. A more favorable
kinematic parameter space is also being suggested with this wave
leading to a chance of stong/severe storms. As a result, the 
SPC now has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas along and 
south of line from Washington IA to Sterling IL. In addition, a 
very moist environment will be in place leading to a heavy rain 
threat. 

Beyond Friday, all deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large 
anomalous 598 dam 500mb ridge building into the central CONUS. Above 
normal temperatures are likely and with the maturing crops adding 
additional moisture into the atmosphere, we could see more heat 
headlines by early next week. The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook 
(encompassing the majority of next week) strongly favors above 
normal temperatures across the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure will continue another VFR TAF cycle through Wed
afternoon, with light and variable sfc winds tonight, trending
to light south to southwest from late Wed morning into the
afternoon. Southwest winds may reach 10 KTs Wed afternoon at
CID. Back to tonight, some chance for ground and valley fog in 
spots. Will put a 3 hour window of 5SM MVFR fog at CID like what
occurred this Tuesday morning, but they may have a south wind
increasing to 5 KTs by that time limiting even MVFR fog from
forming.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Gross/Uttech
AVIATION...12