FXUS63 KEAX 150914 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon. However, rainfall totals have trended downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled. - A cold front will move through the region from west to east this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph behind the front. - Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday afternoon. - Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely. Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern Missouri and NE Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current H5 analysis shows the upper low centered over the Front Range, with enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow downstream across Kansas and Missouri. At the surface, the accompanying surface cyclone is currently lifting to the northeast out of northern Oklahoma. This has helped generate a large shield of showers and thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern Kansas, lifting to the northeast into our CWA. The surface low should continue to lift northeast through the morning hours, pulling a warm front south to north through much of the CWA and allowing for temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon. Scattered showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through the remainder of the morning hours and into early afternoon. However, expected rainfall totals have trended significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled. The closed mid/upper low across the Front Range is progged to become an open wave and eject into the central CONUS by later today, which will push the surface low and trailing cold front through the CWA from west to east this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Colder temperatures and drier air will also move in behind the front. Another mid/upper trough will become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning. With gusty northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res guidance suggests even colder temps than this). Gusty north northwesterly winds will continue through mid to late afternoon. The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. This should yield areas of frost across the area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours. Saturday should be a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the West Coast by Monday/Tuesday. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings will gradually become IFR heading into the overnight hours, and will continue through Thursday morning. Rain showers will spread across much of the area overnight. Thunderstorm potential will remain south of the area. Conditions should start to improve to MVFR by late Thursday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...Krull