FXUS63 KEAX 221649
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible this morning across eastern KS and
  far western Missouri. 

- Cooler temperatures expected this weekend.

- 30 to 40% chance for showers/storms Sunday evening into Sunday
  night.

- Temperatures should gradually warm through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region
between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western
CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia.
At the surface, a very weak boundary is analyzed near the
northern edge of the Ozarks, with high pressure yielding mostly
clear skies with light and variable winds. Convection is ongoing
this morning across portions of central Nebraska, and this will
slowly drift to the southeast with the mean cloud layer flow, 
likely weakening as it moves into eastern and northeastern 
Kansas. It is possible that this convection (albeit in a 
relatively weak form) could make its way into our CWA in far 
eastern KS toward the MO border by around 9 AM or so, moving off
to the south (into the SGF CWA) by late morning/early 
afternoon, with clouds clearing behind it. With the CWA 
positioned between ridging to the west and troughing to the east
northeast, a decent high temperature gradient is expected this 
afternoon, with highs across NE Missouri forecast to reach the 
lower 80s, with highs in the upper 80s south and southwest of 
the KC metro (mid 80s likely in the KC metro). 

On Sunday morning, an H5 50+ knot jet is progged to dig from NE
Minnesota into southern Illinois on the western side of the
trough across the NE CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid level vort max is 
projected to translate across NE/KS and into Missouri. This will
help send a subtle reinforcing shot of marginally cooler and 
drier air, along with mid to high level cloud cover, with 
afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (down from the mid to
upper 80s) and dewpoints lowering a couple degrees. It will also
bring a chance (20 to 30%) for some showers/storms to western
portions of the CWA. 

As we head into early next week, the center of the H5 high that
is currently near the Four Corners area migrates slightly to 
the southeast over SE New Mexico and into west Texas, with 
northwesterly flow aloft remaining in place over the CWA as 
troughing remains over the NE CONUS. This will result in 
gradually warming temperatures through the week and occasional 
low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances 
and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the 
northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Could
be some few to scattered cumulus across central Missouri this
afternoon, which should rapidly discipate towards sunset.
Potential for patchy fog tonight in the river vallies, so added
mention of fog at KSTJ. Any fog should rapidly burn off towards
14Z Sunday. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams

AVIATION...BT