FXUS63 KEAX 230924 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 424 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and slightly less humid today. - Showers and thunderstorms possible to likely late tonight into Monday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible. - Warmer temperatures (but seasonal) expected to return Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over the region, yielding nearly calm winds with some high clouds streaming north to south overhead. All in all a very pleasant late August day is expected today, with afternoon high temperatures only forecast to reach the lower 80s for most locations. More importantly, good mixing into a dry airmass should allow for dew points to drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, making for quite comfortable humidity levels. Quite a bit of mid to high level cloud cover is likely to move in by late this morning, with some isolated elevated showers possible by this afternoon across eastern KS into far western MO. However, with relatively dry low levels, quite a bit of evaporation is likely. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is progged to translate across the Dakotas into Iowa along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, a southeasterly oriented low level jet will develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This will usher in moisture return, with PWATs increasing significantly from this afternoon into late tonight, primarily across eastern KS into western MO. These features should also help generate showers and thunderstorms across the region late tonight into Monday morning, however, CAMs differ considerably with respect to the exact evolution and intensity of these showers and storms. The 06z HRRR is the least excited about any flash flood potential, with total accumulations generally less than half an inch. However, the 06z NAM Nest suggests the potential for pockets of 1-2 (and perhaps more) inches, although the NAM Nest PWATs are significantly higher than other models and seem a bit unrealistic. The 06z RRFS is somewhere between the HRRR and the NAM Nest. All that to say that there does seem to be at least some low end potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall late tonight into Monday morning, and WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern KS into far western MO. Convection should dissipate/exit south of the CWA by late Monday morning, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s across northern MO to the mid 80s elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday and the rest of the week, the western ridge should remain in place, with northwesterly flow aloft continuing over the CWA as troughing remains over Ontario/Quebec and into the NE CONUS. This will result in afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd at all the TAF sites with the exception of STJ where fog is expected to develop aft 08Z and cont thru 14Z reducing vis to 4SM with ocnl vis reduced to 1/4SM btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...expect incrg high clouds thru 21Z aft which bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. A few decaying showers may approach the TAF sites aft 21Z however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Winds thru the TAF pd will be lgt at less than 6kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...73