FXUS64 KEWX 151757 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. - One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake - Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE. High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z. Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front. Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning, but the winds remainingsteady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is a mix of low clouds across most areas of South Central Texas with high clouds mainly over the Pecos area and extending into Val Verde County as of 1 PM CDT/18Z. VFR conditions are in place for the local area terminals early this afternoon and anticipated to keep trend through at least mid evening. Then, weather conditions begin to change over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains as a cold front arrives and moves across that region. KDRT has the best chances for showers and storms to impact the terminal with MVFR cigs and vsbys late tonight continuing through Friday morning. In the wake of the front, strong north winds follow with speeds of 18 to 30 knots and gusts up to 45 knots. The frontal boundary and associated strong and gusty winds are forecast to arrive across the I-35 corridor between 09Z and 10Z Friday. Breezy to windy conditions and gusty winds are forecast to remain across the local area for most of the day on Friday before relaxing Friday night (VFR conditions forecast for this period). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 67 50 69 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 63 46 65 / 50 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 66 49 67 / 80 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 68 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 69 48 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 69 51 70 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 69 51 69 / 40 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 70 52 70 / 40 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17