FXUS63 KFGF 072340
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 risk this evening into the morning hours for
  severe hail, damaging wind gusts, and excessive rainfall/flash
  flooding. This threat exists along and south of interstate 94
  and Highway 10 (southeast North Dakota into west central
  Minnesota).  

- Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mostly just rain and a few thunderstorms across our forecast
area currently, but some elevated storms starting to develop in
south central ND near the SD border. This will spread into 
southeastern ND during the later part of this evening, and tried
to reflect this and radar trends in the POP grids but will
probably have to make adjustments later. With deep layer bulk
shear around 35 kts and MU CAPE over 1000 J/kg, will have to
watch for some elevated hail developing near the SD border in
the next few hours. Heavy rain will also likely be an issue with
several of the ensembles showing some extremely heavy QPF 
amounts in their outlying solutions. Flood watch for west
central MN continues. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern
over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to
transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging
across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course. 

...Severe and Flash Flood Potential...

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across
Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to
propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet
to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River
Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary
across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated
with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota.
This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be
minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as
the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain
across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated 
front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high
chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10.

Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given 
the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near 
severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective 
shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given
the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the 
storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will 
limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential.

Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy
rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings
indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing
level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front,
potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance
indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5
inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday
(1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood
watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a). 

...Dangerous Heat...

As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max
temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the
region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp,
and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Currently VFR at all TAF sites with some thunderstorms around
KFAR and showers at KGFK and theMN airports. Have VCSH or
prevailing rain for much of this evening for all except KDVL.
KFAR could get down to MVFR visibility with any heavier cells
that go across, but not confident enough to include in the TAFs
at this time. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will move
away from our TAF sites between 08 and 12Z tonight. Decreasing
clouds and VFR conditions for the second half of the period.
Winds that are northwesterly around 8-10 kts at some locations
will become light and variable, then pick up again out of the
northeast at 8 to 10 kts tomorrow. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday 
     morning for MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...JR