FXUS63 KFGF 090306
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake 
  basin. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms.

- Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its
influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies.
This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest
high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but
does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into
northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally 
resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River 
Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...Synopsis...

Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give 
way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds 
across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple 
stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in 
Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the 
local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat 
Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the 
placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something
to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some 
scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance 
to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly 
across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some 
strong to severe activity.

- Thursday Severe Risk

Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave 
tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead 
the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North 
Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no 
shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear 
along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell
structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a 
few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the 
tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher 
threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area 
and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should 
transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to 
cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will 
evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms 
likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards 
for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph.

- Heat Impacts

For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in 
much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90
degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least 
Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next 
week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on 
potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning 
while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than 
currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in 
the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps 
will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. 
With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being 
the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the 
earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a 
proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products 
being issued.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Other than a chance for fog within the Red River Valley into
northwest Minnesota, high confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period. Windowfor fog potential generally between
09Z-13Z, of which confidence is generally high enough of this
potential to include at KFAR, but is liable to occur at KGFK as
well.

High pressure into the area will keep winds light and variable
through the overnight and morning, and even into the afternoon
with the exception of KDVL where winds increase to around 10kt
out of the south after 16Z.

Daytime cumulus after 15Z Friday is forecast to be rooted around
4-6kft again for the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ