FXUS63 KFGF 151213 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 713 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Advisory level winds are expected this afternoon into tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley. - Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Change in the forecast for today was to change start and end time of the wind advisory. Based on HRRR forecasts of peak winds there are two corridors. One is more with a west-northwest wind shift southwest of the sfc low originating in the Saskatoon and Regina area moving southeast thru western into central ND into north central SD. This is more daytime today...with chances for winds reaching advisory after 18z in far western fcst area Cando to Devils Lake to Valley City. Though it is possible advisory level winds remain a bit west of this area. Another corridor of high wind potential will be felt directly to the west of the sfc low in associated with cold advection that drops south from Winnipeg to Fargo after dark tonight. BUFKIT soundings for Fargo and Grand Forks show best lapse rates to mix down winds from 870 mb to be felt 04z-08z Friday where winds of 40-45 kts should mix down. Wind direction during this time overnight is northerly and favorable for a period of highest winds in the valley. Push of cold air isnt intense so dont expect an over achieving wind event at this time, as we may get in the winter time in a similar situation. With the timing above...went advisory 18z to 09z for DVL region, kept it early yet in case winds increase fast enough. In the valley where initial winds will not be advisory, went 23z-11z or 6pm to 6 am. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus deck continues to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s thus far today. Upper flow is nearly zonal, but will be transitioning to southwest this evening and overnight before shifting to the northwest late Thursday evening. Very light precipitation is possible along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota. Breezy northwest winds pick up early Thursday morning and persist through much of the day. The strongest pressure gradients shift eastward overnight into Friday morning with weak, transient, ridging bringing warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday and Sunday. ...Breezy Northwest Winds Thursday... Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph are possible Thursday with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. This will be in response to a fast moving cold front and strong pressure rises on the western side of the frontal passage. There is still some uncertainty surrounding cloud cover, which could limit mixing during the afternoon and evening and slightly reduce the potential max wind gusts. At this time, the signal is consistently strong, however, with generally moderate to high confidence in the possibility of Advisory level winds. ...Freezing Temperatures Possible Friday Night... Guidance continues to bring colder air into the area following Thursday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s, but with lingering cloud cover. A better chance of upper 20s and low 30s will be Friday night into Saturday morning as cloud cover is expected to diminish by midday Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A mix bag of sky conditions today. There is one area of MVFR cigs with rain from Bemidji to Fergus Falls that will move out. Around it is extensive mid/high clouds. Now this area of cloud cover will clear out briefly from the west then MVFR cloud deck around the next upper low dropping southeast into the area will move in, mainly this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be a factor today, not so much this morning though. Cold front passing thru will turn winds to the northwest and look for a period of wind gusts in excess of 30 kts in KDVL mid afternoon into the evening and then a more north-northwest wind with frequent gusts 35kts or higher GFK/FAR tonight. The tricky part is the usual timing of wind switching from more south to southwest then northwest with the front and timing increasing wind speeds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Riddle