FXUS63 KFGF 191747
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west
  of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in
  effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of
  eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Getting a few speckles showing up on radar, and KFAR has
reported some light rain. Have sprinkles for a while this
afternoon as the upper trough axis swings through, but should 
taper off this evening. Winds and clouds will decrease
overnight, and we should drop down close to the freezing mark in
most places. Freeze warning and frost advisory headlines will be
out by early afternoon. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...Synopsis...

Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead
shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD.
This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers
starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern
portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains
tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern
vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave
moving through should help push high pressure down into the
region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to
the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split
trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to
move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of
variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough
comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended
solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising
above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem
reasonable. 

...Rain chances tonight...

CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers
currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward
through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of
the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between
midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light
showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the
Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01
of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least
0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. 

...Temperatures into the 30s tonight...

Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps
in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain
cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from
northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow
morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for
temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish
HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think
we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows
up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual
frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River
Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead
and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look
to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better
chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Lingering MVFR ceilings and some scattered light
showers/sprinkles will continue into early afternoon. Showers
could impact a few of the TAF sites, but mostly just brief light
rain and not any reductions to visibility. Should see some 
improvement to VFR by late afternoon or evening, then clearing 
out completely later tonight. Winds that are gusting above 20 
kts at some airports will diminish, becoming light and variable 
overnight. The ND airports should see winds start to pick up out
of the south to southeast by tomorrow mid-day. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR