FXUS65 KFGZ 072111
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
211 PM MST Tue Jul 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona today and 
tomorrow. On Thursday and Friday, drier conditions are expected 
with only isolated storms over the White Mountains. Moisture 
begins to ramp up again this weekend and into next week. 
Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand 
Canyon through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge centered along the AZ-NM border continues 
to allow for favorable flow of moisture into our area, and storms
are currently ongoing in eastern AZ. Storm intensity is slightly 
higher than yesterday, but still remains somewhat suppressed with
warm air aloft. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and cloud-to- 
ground lightning are the primary hazards from storms. Localized 
downpours will also lead to a low, but nonzero chance for flash 
flooding over sensitive areas (burn scars). Hi-res guidance 
indicates potential for storms as far west as Flagstaff and the 
Kaibab Plateau in the late afternoon. Storms will diminish after 
sunset today. Similar activity can be expected tomorrow, though 
the ridge begins to flatten and introduce a drier westerly flow 
aloft.

By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge centers to our west. 
This will push most of the convective activity to our south, though 
some storms will likely hang around the White Mountains each day. By 
the weekend, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and rapidly shift 
to our northeast. Confidence is increasing that we will enter a 
favorable monsoon pattern by early next week. Stay tuned for further 
updates on this period!

Heat will also be a concern through the week. The primary concern is 
the lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon, where temperatures are 
forecast to exceed 110 degrees each day this week. Similar 
temperatures will be felt An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for 
the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft through Wednesday, becoming an 
Extreme Heat Watch thereafter through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/18Z through Wednesday 08/18Z...Primarily 
VFR conditions. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line, 
becoming SCT in southern Apache and Navajo counties during the 
afternoon. Brief MVFR possible in storms. Winds are SW 10-20 kts 
through 03Z, becoming light and VRB overnight. Gusty and erratic 
winds expected near storms.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...Primarily VFR 
conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA primarily over southern Apache and 
Navajo counties on Wednesday afternoon, with ISOLD coverage as 
far west as a KFLG/KPAN line. ISOLD storms possible INVOF the 
White Mountains on Thursday afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts 
each afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot 
and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting 
from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue 
over eastern Arizona. Isolated activity developing as far west as a 
Flagstaff to Payson line on Wednesday, then shifting to Heber 
eastward on Thursday. Stronger storms will be capable of producing 
wetting rains.

Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on 
Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday 
and Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting 
from 25 to 30 mph on Friday becoming lighter at 5-15 mph and more 
variable on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff