FXUS65 KFGZ 080905
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
205 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected 
through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms will continue over portions of eastern and central 
Arizona Wednesday, but expect less activity Thursday and Friday. 
Then, Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up this weekend and into 
next week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of
the Grand Canyon through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge axis that has been along the AZ/NM border 
for the last few days has started to flatten and retrograde to the 
west this morning. Before this fully develops, expect another day of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache 
counties, as well as northern Gila County and possibly eastern 
Yavapai and southern Coconino counties.

Moisture values are decent over much of the CWA, but the deepest 
moisture still resides south of the Mogollon Rim and across much of 
southeastern Arizona. Any convection moving into this air mass this 
afternoon could develop into isolated, yet fairly strong storms.

By Thursday and Friday, the ridge position to our west will drive 
most moisture south of the CWA, with the only activity likely being 
over or just south of the White Mountains. This will be short-lived.

By Saturday and Sunday, the ridge rapidly rebounds, strengthens and 
then moves into a very favorable flow pattern for the North American 
Monsoon. This is starting to look like our official start, as all of 
next week is now looking quite robust.

As the moisture pool wobbles in and out of the CWA, we expect very 
warm temperatures to continue, possibly not peaking until Saturday 
or Sunday. The Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon is in 
effect through Saturday evening. Other lower elevations will 
experience similar conditions, but are not in any EHW products.

That is about it, moisture teases us for a few days and then, it 
surely looks like the Monsoon begins. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA east of KPGA-KINW through 08Z. Another round 
of ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA after 18Z-20Z Wed, with the highest coverage 
south of a KPAN-KINW-KRQE line. Winds light and VRB overnight and 
then SW 10-20 kts again after 18Z Wed. Gusty/erratic wind gusts up 
to 35 kts possible with shower activity.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Primarily VFR 
conditions. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA possible SE of a KPAN-KRQE line on 
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Winds SW-W 10-20 kts each 
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Most areas will remain hot 
and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting 
from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue 
over eastern Arizona Wednesday, with more isolated activity as far 
west as a Flagstaff to Payson line. Thunderstorm activity Thursday 
mainly over the White Mountains. Stronger storms either day will be 
capable of producing wetting rains.

Friday through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry. Slight chances for 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountain region on 
Friday, before activity starts moving back west and north Saturday 
and especially Sunday. Expect southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 
mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday. Winds becoming lighter and 
more variable for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ006 below 4000 
feet.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff