FXUS65 KFGZ 082036
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
136 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
continue over portions of eastern and central Arizona today 
Expect less activity Thursday and Friday, then Monsoonal moisture
begins to ramp up this weekend and into next week. Dangerous heat
is also expected through the period for portions of Northern AZ, 
including Glen and Marble Canyons and the lower elevations of the 
Grand Canyon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been driving the influx of
moisture into northern AZ has flattened and is retrograding to 
the west. This will begin to introduce a drier westerly flow 
aloft, however plenty of moisture still lingers across the area. 
Today remains a fairly similar setup to yesterday, with scattered 
to isolated showers and thunderstorms currently firing over 
eastern AZ. Storms intensity is just a little higher than previous
days, though the primary hazards from storms remain gusty outflow
winds, lightning, and small hail. Localized downpours will also 
lead to a low risk for flash flooding over sensitive areas (burn 
scars).

By Thursday and Friday, the flattened ridge establishes to our west. 
This will push most of the convective activity to our south under 
drier northwest flow, though some storms will likely hang around the 
White Mountains each day. By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to 
strengthen and rapidly shift to our northeast. This would be a 
favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. The ensemble 
mean PW approaches the 90th percentile for this time of year by 
Monday. The current forecast calls for precipitation chances ramping 
up on Sunday-Monday with the best coverage of storms along/south of 
the Mogollon Rim. Stay tuned for further updates on this period!

Heat will also be a concern through the week with above normal July 
temperatures forecasted each day. The Extreme Heat Warning for the 
Grand Canyon below 4000 ft has been extended through Sunday, with 
temperatures in excess of 110 degrees expected each day at Phantom 
Ranch. An Extreme Heat Warning has also been issued for Marble and 
Glen Canyons on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures forecasted to 
reach moderate-extreme HeatRisk.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. Brief MVFR possible in SCT SHRA/TSRA, primarily over 
southern Apache and Navajo counties during the afternoon. Some 
ISOLD cells may push as far west as a KFLG/KPAN line by late 
afternoon. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, becoming light and 
VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. ISOLD storms possible INVOF the White Mtns each 
afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each day, light and VRB or
terrain during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions, 
aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in the 
White Mountains. Winds west/southwest 10-20 mph each day. 

Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for showers 
and thunderstorms each day. Wetting rains possible in any stronger 
storm. Winds light and variable Saturday, becoming south/southeast 5-
15 mph on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM 
MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff