FXUS65 KFGZ 091751
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1051 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected 
through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region Thursday 
and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up over this weekend 
and into next week, with storm activity pushing back west and north 
and becoming more frequent. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower 
elevations of the Grand Canyon and then Glen Canyon through at least 
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Changes in steering flow and the influx of drier 
boundary layer air over the northern and western zones will lead to 
fairly quiet and hot conditions over the next 2 or 3 days. These 
changes are bring driven by a westward relocation and flattening of 
the ridge that is currently underway. Higher moisture values persist 
over western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, meaning the White 
Mountains will not be fully overcome by these changes and convection 
will continue in this area. Most other locations will not see any 
convection for Thursday and Friday, perhaps even Saturday.

Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge recenters to our 
northeast and strengthens dramatically. This will open the door for 
the moisture pool that is already in place and Monsoon 2026 will 
begin in earnest by Sunday or Monday.

Due to the strength of this ridge, any location that does not see 
rainfall or enhanced cloud cover will still be quite warm, even for 
this time of year. EHW products for the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon 
will persist through at least Saturday as a result. This is not to 
say that other lower elevation locations will not be uncomfortable 
at times, but overnight recovery and less potential for outdoor 
activity will temper the need for additional products.

By early next week, the aforementioned Monsoon 2026 should keep most 
locations at least 5-10 degrees cooler, likely eliminating the need 
for heat products.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 09/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR 
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-02Z INVOF the White 
Mountains. Winds are SW-W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts through 
03Z, becoming lighter overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
near showers.

OUTLOOK...Friday 10/18Z through Sunday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR 
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA INVOF the White Mountains for 
Friday, spreading a bit further west and north on Saturday. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near storms, otherwise daytime winds 
are SW-W 10-20kts on Friday, becoming light and VRB on Saturday. 
Winds light and VRB or terrain driven winds overnight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Most areas will be hot and 
dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting 
from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue 
over the White Mountain region each afternoon, but convection 
outside of east-central Arizona is unlikely.

Saturday through Monday...Remaining hot, with isolated shower and 
thunderstorm activity on Saturday, then pushing west and north and 
becoming more frequent Sunday and Monday. Wetting rains are likely 
from convection by Sunday and Monday. Generally light and variable 
winds Saturday, remaining light, 5 to 15 mph, but trending southerly 
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM 
MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff