FXUS65 KFGZ 151820
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1120 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday.
Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, 
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday - strong high pressure aloft
will develop over the Great Basin while a low forms off the
northern Baja coast. The result will be rapidly increasing
easterly flow aloft over our region. There will also be tighter
easterly surface pressure gradients as a surface high plunges down
through the Rockies and plains. Expect northeast to east winds to
increase through this period, especially along/west of terrain 
features. The period of strongest winds currently looks like later
tonight through Friday morning, including areas around Flagstaff,
Sedona, and the I-17 corridor from Flagstaff down to the Hwy 179 
interchange. Gusts in these areas may reach 40-50 mph, with most 
other areas staying in the 30-40 mph range. Otherwise, expect dry 
and continued cooler than normal conditions through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday - Some moisture should move back into the 
region from the southeast by the weekend, and a low (10-25%) 
chance of showers and thunderstorms is included in our latest 
forecasts. Rain chances may increase as we get closer, depending 
on the track of the weak upper low as it ejects northeastward late
in the weekend and possible interaction with deeper moisture 
associated with tropical systems far to the south off the coast of
Mexico. While most of the ensemble guidance continues to keep the
deeper moisture to our east through Sunday, a small percentage
(including latest operational EC) bring it farther west, so this 
will be something to monitor. Daytime highs look to stay below 
normal through the weekend. 

Monday through Wednesday - ensemble forecasts show deeper low 
pressure diving south along the West Coast, settling over or just 
west of central/southern California by Tuesday or Wednesday. This 
will bring the potential for deeper moisture from the south to 
interact with the low over our region, and our rain chances have 
increased to 30-50% Tue/Wed. Daytime temperatures will remain 
cooler than average for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are northeast to east winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts
through the period. Winds remain gusty overnight into tomorrow 
morning, especially along/west of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/18Z through Sunday 18/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible across much of northern AZ on
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Winds are easterly 
through the period, initially between 15-25 kts with localized 
gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, becoming lighter at 10-20 kts on 
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions 
throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph 
with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated 
overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain 
features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White 
Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. 
Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. 

Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and 
thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 
mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then 
southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 
degrees cooler than normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff