FXUS65 KFGZ 152116
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through 
Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next 
week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong easterly gradients across the southwestern 
United States will continue through late Friday. Wind speeds by late 
this morning had exceeded all guidance in a few places, enough to 
assume that this will continue for awhile. So, we issued a Wind 
Advisory for our western zones for now. There is also indication 
that a band of stronger winds will develop over southern Navajo and 
Apache counties later tonight and more zones may need to be added.

By the start of the weekend, the easterlies will subside as a weak 
upper low off the Baja Peninsula gets picked up by an amplifying 
eastern Pacific trough. This will, once again, pick up some tropical 
moisture and slowly introduce shower chances back to our area. By 
early next week, a strong trough will move into the remnant moisture 
and provide several days of showers and thunderstorms, possibly even 
through the end of the week. If this sounds familiar, it is, because 
we just did it last week. Will this be a repeat? Maybe, stay tuned 
and find out!

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are northeast to east winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts
through the period. Winds remain gusty overnight into tomorrow 
morning, especially along/west of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/18Z through Sunday 18/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible across much of northern AZ on
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Winds are easterly 
through the period, initially between 15-25 kts with localized 
gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, becoming lighter at 10-20 kts on 
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Expect cool with gusty 
conditions. Winds are northeast to east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 
mph tonight through Friday afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 
mph possible along and southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and 
Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish for Friday night, then 
become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance 
of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 
20-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than 
normal. 

Sunday through Tuesday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms 
over the higher terrain on Sunday, chances increasing and spreading 
to most of Northern AZ on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and 
variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south 
through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff