FXUS65 KFGZ 181811
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1111 AM MST Mon May 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a
cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for
the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Gusty winds remain over the higher terrain 
this morning as a cold front moves across northern Arizona. Winds 
should gradually subside from west to east with the frontal passage,
thus for most of the area the Wind Advisory will expire by 5 AM 
MST / 6 AM MDT. Across eastern Arizona, FROPA looks to still be a 
couple hours later, so the advisory has been extended to 11 AM MST
/ 12 PM MDT.

As the aforementioned front moves through the region, a brief period 
of showers will move from west to east, primarily near the AZ/UT 
border. Given that surface moisture will remain fairly minimal, much 
of the activity is expected to be either virga or light in nature. 
The best shot at measurable precip looks to mainly be across the 
Kaibab Plateau, an potentially Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains 
as well. 00Z HREF guidance appears to be a bit bullish with 
precipitation chances, brining them as far south of as the Mogollon 
Rim. However, model soundings don't really support this outside of a 
subtle increase in low-level moisture early this morning. 
Nevertheless, PoP chances were maintained in the Flagstaff area for 
the potential for a couple isolated showers. Colder air aloft does 
move in with the front, so a few snow flakes may mix in at times 
above 7000-7500 feet. However any potential for measurable snow 
looks to remain above 7500-8000 feet and primarily near the Kaibab 
Plateau.

Tuesday through Sunday...Zonal flow sets in behind the low earlier 
in the week. Warming temperatures and dry conditions look to ensue 
as a result, with a return to near-normal highs by the middle to end 
of next week. Weak troughing will keep winds fairly light each day, 
with mainly only the typical afternoon breezes expected.

Ensemble guidance all signal towards PWATs increasing slightly by 
next weekend as a weak low looks to increase moisture advection into 
Arizona. For now, this looks to mainly result in a slight chance for 
some high-based showers around the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 18/18Z through Tuesday 19/18Z...VFR conditions. 
Winds W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts through 03Z, then 
becoming N/NE 5-10 kts.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/18Z through Thursday 21/18Z...VFR conditions 
with W/SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Slight chance for light showers 
and possibly a thunderstorm this morning across far northern 
Arizona, otherwise dry and cool conditions. Winds west/southwest 10-
20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, subsiding to 5-15 mph on Tuesday. 
Minimum afternoon RH 10-30%, falling to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday....Dry conditions with gradually warming 
temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with 
minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ011-
014-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff