FXUS65 KFGZ 230541
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1041 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon conditions will continue through
Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and 
evening hours. Then, as a high pressure system builds over 
Arizona, warmer and drier conditions are expected to develop by 
midweek as the flow of moisture northward into the region 
decreases.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 500 mb high pressure system located above west- 
central New Mexico is expected to slowly build westward by the 
middle of the upcoming week. In its current position, the high is 
supporting moderate monsoonal conditions as some moisture 
continues to be transported northward into northern Arizona, 
supporting shower and thunderstorms across and near the higher 
terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly steering
flow will also push the developing showers and thunderstorms 
northward. This pattern is expected continue Monday, then as the 
high builds westward and over Arizona midweek this will slow the 
transport of monsoonal moisture and allow for drier and more 
stable air to develop over northern Arizona. This will lead to a 
decrease in the potential for showers and thunderstorms, along 
with allowing max daytime temperatures to climb a few decreases, 
especially in areas that have been experiencing increased cloud 
cover due to the current monsoonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/06Z through Monday 24/06Z...VFR conditions
mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier 
SHRA/TSRA. Isolated -SHRA overnight, mainly east of a KPGA-KPAN
line. Another round of scattered SHRA/TSRA developing Sunday 
after 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. Outside of 
gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable daytime 
winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...VFR conditions
mostly expected. Scattered afternoon/evening mainly high terrain 
SHRA/TSRA Monday, then coverage decreasing to isolated by 
Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for 
daytime winds mainly SW-W 5-15 kts.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect daily chances for 
showers/thunderstorms, with greatest coverage across the higher 
terrain. Activity will ramp up around 11 AM MST each day, and 
continue through the evening hours. Storms will be capable of 
producing gusty winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent 
lightning. Outside of storm driven winds, look for variable winds 
generally 10 mph or less. 

Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, 
with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains Wednesday and 
Thursday. Daytime highs forecast to increase, reaching 8-15 degrees 
above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schank
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff