FXUS63 KFSD 180548 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1248 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The severe threat for tonight has ended. - A lower risk of severe weather exists late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest IA, before quieter weather moves in for the mid-week period. - Dry for the middle portions of the week. Then another round of storms is possible Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The threat for severe weather has ended for tonight for the forecast region. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours, ending in the very early hours of Monday morning. Gusty northwest winds will expand eastward overnight, gusting 25-30 mph, with a few gusts to 35 mph over south central South Dakota. Winds continue to push east through the day Monday and remain breezy into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon chances increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may become strong to severe, especially for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Some uncertainty remains after today's storms as to how well the atmosphere will recover by tomorrow afternoon. If you have outdoor plans, please check the forecast for updates and have multiple ways to receive warnings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The short-term convective outlook presents a highly volatile spring severe weather setup. Latest surface analysis shows a complex pattern, anchored by a strong 994 mb low over northwest KS. An inverted trough extended north of the low through central SD, while a well-defined warm front stretched northeast of the low into east central NE. A weaker low was also noted in north central NE. Visible satellite imagery revealed stable wave clouds advancing northeast over far northeast NE and extreme SE SD, ahead of the advancing warm front. Regional radar imagery showed a complex of strong to severe storms over north central NE. This storm complex is forecast by short range guidance to continue tracking east this afternoon, intensifying as interacts with the richer low- level moisture pool near and south of the warm front. Moderate to strong instability will be in place over the southern to eastern CWA by late afternoon with MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will increase to around 50 kt, coincident with a mid level speed max ejecting from the deep upper trough to our west. As the system evolves over the next several hours, it appears the ingredients for a significant severe weather event will be most favored over the southern to eastern CWA. Ahead of the main convective line, some CAMs show supercell development along the northward advancing warm front. These storms would present a risk of very large hail (2"+) and tornadoes. Given the amount of low level SRH/curved hodographs present, a couple strong tornadoes are possible. The convective cluster currently entering our far southwest CWA should strengthen as it shifts east, with an initial hail and tornado threat transitioning to a damaging straight line wind threat (70+ MPH) as it grows upscale into a squall line/QLCS. Some line-embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially for any line segments that become oriented north/south or northwest/southeast, given southwesterly 0-3 km shear vectors. Timing from latest high-res guidance suggests this activity exits to the east of our CWA late this evening. Precipitation amounts will vary significantly based on convective tracks, though NBM guidance and HREF probability match mean fields project a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rainfall, particularly across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Monday, the cold front finally pushes into the area. Instability and shear are forecast to be much lower than today, however, there will be a conditional risk of severe storms over the eastern CWA during the late afternoon to evening, if the airmass can destabilize sufficiently ahead of the front. SPC's Day 2 outlook indicates as Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), for our MN and IA counties. Behind the departing upper wave, quasi-zonal flow sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday, yielding quiet conditions and seasonally cool high temperatures moderating from the upper 50s Tuesday to mid-upper 60s Wednesday. The next upper wave moves in for the Thursday to Friday period, however Gulf moisture remains cutoff ahead of this system. Evaluating the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) reveals no significant climatological anomalies for precipitation or wind across the upper Midwest during this period, reinforcing the the idea of a low-impact system for our area. The current forecast sticks closely to the NBM consensus, maintaining broad 20-30 percent probabilities for light rain for late Thursday into Saturday. By late this week and especially this weekend, temperatures will embark on a steady upward trajectory, as the mid level flow backs west, then southwest. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which supports blended guidance high temperatures reaching well into the 80s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A mix of VFR down to LIFR across the region as low stratus persists through most of the period. Breezy northwest winds gusting 20-25 kts west of I-29 will also prevail for the period. To the east gusts are west becoming northwest at 10-15 kts. Monday morning winds become northerly and increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Peak gusts of 25-35 kts are expected, with the strongest winds over south central South Dakota. The stronger winds gradually progress to the east toward the end of the period. Dry conditions are expected until Monday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Showers will be scattered in nature and will be more periodic than continuous. As we approach the late afternoon and early evening, severe risks increase especially for areas of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. There is some question on how well the atmosphere will recover before Monday afternoon. This may limit severe potential to just a few storms. Stronger storms that do form may be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Showers and storms continue through the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...AJP