FXUS64 KFWD 080610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon mainly east of I-35. Strong winds will be the main threat with any storms. - Hot and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low storm chances returning across the region by this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Water vapor imagery indicates that a persistent weakness in the mid level heights associated with a slow moving trough is still present from the Ozarks southward into the Arklatex and East Texas early this morning, although drier air has nudged eastward. This is supported by the GOES PW imagery which indicates a notable push of drier air into our western counties mainly west of I-35. This intrusion of drier air is indicative of mid level ridging expanding back eastward and will eventually nudge our weak upper trough out of the region by Thursday. Until then, weak low level convergence will be sufficient to generate isolated convection across the region again today and particularly this afternoon. Radar and satellite trends over the last hour suggest this weak convergence is working on a moist boundary layer featuring modest instability and weak capping as more convective cloud features are noted in IR imagery. As a result, we'll likely see some scattered showers/storms through the early morning hours mainly across our northeast counties. This will continue to be the favored area for additional storms this afternoon with coverage expected to be less than the last couple of days. We'll keep PoPs confined to areas east of I-35 this afternoon with rain chances capped at around 20%. Increasing mid level heights will lead to another hot day with most areas west of I-35 at or slightly above 100 degrees. Areas to the east will be in the mid/upper 90s. Any convective activity should decrease in coverage through the early evening hours. Similar to the last few days though, deep boundary layer mixing and generally high cloud bases will support a few strong wind gusts with any storms this afternoon and evening. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Ridging will briefly expand eastward on Thursday and Friday keeping things hot and dry across the region. Highs will top out at or just above 100 degrees both days, but troughing will become more amplified over the eastern CONUS during this time and a diffuse frontal boundary will sag south through the Plains by Saturday. We'll likely stay dry through Saturday with the exception of some isolated sea breeze storms to the south spreading into our far southern counties during the late afternoon/evening hours. Meanwhile, our upper ridge will amplify and strengthen to 600dm over the Intermountain West late Saturday into Sunday as it spreads into the Central and Northern Plains early next week. This would put North Texas on the southern periphery of the stronger ridge to the north and weaker ridging over the southeastern Gulf. This mid level deformation zone between the two ridges would feature a moisture rich easterly and southerly flow pattern and may serve as an area of weak frontogenesis in an east/west band from northern Louisiana into North Texas. While often not significant in terms of temperature gradient, these focused areas of moisture convergence in the summer within an environment that is moisture rich and modestly unstable can feature extended periods of convective development within the bands of strongest ascent beyond the typical diurnally driven convective cycle. The latest ECMWF guidance, and to a lesser extent the GFS, hints at this scenario with an east/west oriented band of modest QPF through early next week. While we certainly don't want to overhype rain chances during an extended period of hot and dry weather, it will be something we'll need to monitor going into the weekend and early next week given at least a low potential for heavy rainfall. For now, we'll show steadily increasing rain chances late Saturday night through Monday with the highest rain chances (~40-60%) on Monday. Along with increased cloud cover, we'll see temperatures drop a few degrees Sunday through Tuesday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with generally southerly winds around 10 kt. These winds will increase a bit this afternoon and tonight. There is a low chance for thunderstorms this afternoon with the bulk of the convective activity expected to be to the east of the major airports. We'll leave any mention of TS out of the current TAF based on the latest trends in observational data. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 80 100 79 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 99 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 95 75 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 100 78 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0 Dallas 99 81 101 81 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 97 77 99 77 / 20 0 0 0 Corsicana 97 76 99 77 / 20 10 0 0 Temple 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$