FXUS64 KFWD 181016 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 516 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again today, but most areas will stay dry. - More widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves into and stalls across the region. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are possible both days. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue the rest of the week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Latest radar imagery shows the showers and storms that affected North and Central Texas on Sunday evening have moved out of our area into East Texas, with dry conditions now in place. In the wake of this activity, surface obs and area radars show the nocturnal LLJ has kicked into gear early this morning with winds up to 50 knots at 3k ft per the KFWS VAD wind profile. This will lead to gusty south winds up to 40 mph at times throughout the day today and even into tonight. The LLJ is also bringing a surge of low clouds rapidly northward which are expected to blanket most of the area until breaking up by midday, allowing for another warm, humid afternoon with highs in the 80s and 90s. Precip chances for today look quite low as main synoptic features and forcing stay well to our north. Even so, moisture remains plentiful with a PWAT of 1.87 inches on the 00Z FWD sounding, so a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm could potentially pop up. Much higher rain chances, however, will wait until tomorrow as a cold front moves in from the north. Latest models/CAMs show the front arriving into Montague County in the 12-15Z timeframe Tuesday morning, then reaching the Metroplex around 18-20Z before stalling across Central Texas by 00Z. Majority of guidance shows widespread showers and storms along the front, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail given the high CAPE/weak shear profiles shown on forecast soundings. This activity should diminish from north to south with time Tuesday evening/night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Overall pattern with southwesterly flow aloft, frequent embedded shortwaves moving overhead, and stalled/gradually washing out stationary front will remain in place the rest of the week into the weekend. This should lead to fairly high daily rain chances each day, especially across Central Texas. Forecast soundings for the rest of the week show much lower CAPE and continued weak shear, so the severe threat is expected to be low, with the main focus shifting to heavy rain and localized flooding potential. Latest model QPF totals along with WPC show rainfall amounts over the next 7 days ranging from 1 inch in northwest Texas to as much as 5 inches in our southeast counties. Should these rainfall totals pan out, they would put a big dent in the drought conditions across our eastern and southeast counties. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs will continue at all airports through 16Z this morning with a return to VFR conditions afterwards. Strong south winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts are expected much of the day with highest gusts during the afternoon. Winds will subside somewhat after 01Z with another round of MVFR cigs arriving 06-09Z at all airports. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth90 74 87 68 / 20 40 80 70 Waco 88 75 87 69 / 10 20 70 70 Paris 87 73 83 66 / 20 30 90 70 Denton 89 75 86 65 / 20 50 90 70 McKinney 89 74 86 66 / 20 40 80 70 Dallas 91 75 88 68 / 20 40 80 70 Terrell 89 73 87 68 / 10 30 80 70 Corsicana 91 76 89 71 / 10 30 80 70 Temple 90 76 89 70 / 10 20 70 70 Mineral Wells 88 73 87 64 / 20 40 90 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger