FXUS64 KFWD 181840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon, but most areas will stay dry. - More widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves into and stalls across the region. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are possible both days. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue the rest of the week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A warm, humid, and windy afternoon is underway across North and Central Texas as strong southerly flow continues ahead of a dryline to our west and a cold front moving into the Southern Plains. The special 18Z sounding still shows a sizable cap in place, which should suppress most convective attempts through this afternoon. Increasing broad-scale lift may still allow an isolated shower or storm to develop away from the dryline, similar to what occurred yesterday, but the dryline remains the better focus for any more sustained convection late this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that develops should remain isolated, with steep lapse rates supporting some hail potential and collapsing cores capable of producing strong downburst winds. The cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday morning, reaching the I-20 corridor around midday and Central Texas by late afternoon or early evening. Showers and storms should increase in coverage along the front as it moves into a moist and unstable airmass, with the highest rain chances gradually shifting south and east through the day. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe hazards, with the overall intensity tied to how much instability can build ahead of the boundary and how much influence any prior outflow has on the frontal zone. Activity should gradually diminish from north to south Tuesday evening as the front settles into Central Texas, with cooler air filtering into North Texas behind the boundary. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The front will slow and become draped across Central or Southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday while southwest flow persists aloft. Showers and storms will remain possible near and north of the boundary, but Wednesday currently looks like a relative minimum in rain chances for much of North and Central Texas as the better forcing and deeper moisture convergence focus farther east and southeast. PoPs will remain in the forecast area-wide, but the highest coverage should favor East Texas and Southeast Texas during this period. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front, with clouds and scattered precipitation keeping many areas near or below seasonal normals through midweek. Rain and storm chances should increase again on Thursday as a compact shortwave embedded in the southwest flow pivots across Central Texas while the remnant frontal zone remains nearby. This setup should provide a better overlap of ascent, moisture, and boundary-focused lift, supporting another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather potential appears limited by weaker shear and less favorable instability compared to Monday and Tuesday, but locally heavy rainfall will become a greater concern. This will be a cumulative rainfall event, and by Thursday the earlier rounds of rain may begin to moisten the top layer of soils enough to lower runoff thresholds, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.Periodic rain and storm chances will continue Friday into the holiday weekend as additional weak disturbances move through the persistent southwest flow. The placement of the old frontal zone and any convective outflow boundaries will continue to drive the location of the heaviest rainfall from day to day, keeping confidence lower in the exact corridor of higher totals. The overall pattern supports beneficial rainfall for many areas, but localized flooding concerns may increase where repeated rounds occur, particularly across Central Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Severe weather potential should remain low late week into the weekend, with locally heavy rain and occasional lightning becoming the main concerns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong south winds will remain the primary aviation concern through the afternoon and early evening with sustained speeds around 20-25 kt and gusts to near 30-35 kt. VFR will prevail through the evening, with winds gradually decreasing after sunset. Another round of MVFR ceilings will arrive late tonight into early Tuesday morning, generally 06-09Z, with the lowest cigs likely across Central Texas including KACT. A cold front will move into North Texas on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms expected to cross the Red River by mid morning and move through the region through the afternoon and evening. The most likely window for impacts at the Metroplex terminals will be 19-23Z, with gusty and erratic winds, brief visibility reductions, and MVFR/brief IFR conditions possible in heavier storms. Timing and placement details will continue to be refined in later TAF issuances, but a wind shift will likely accompany the front and any stronger storm outflows. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 87 68 81 / 10 90 70 50 Waco 75 87 69 81 / 10 80 70 50 Paris 73 83 66 79 / 20 90 70 70 Denton 75 86 65 79 / 10 90 70 40 McKinney 74 86 66 80 / 10 90 70 50 Dallas 75 88 68 82 / 10 90 70 60 Terrell 73 87 68 81 / 10 80 70 70 Corsicana 76 89 71 83 / 20 80 70 70 Temple 76 89 70 82 / 10 70 70 60 Mineral Wells 73 87 64 79 / 10 90 70 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12