FXUS64 KFWD 220625 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through Saturday evening. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tonight) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's another hot August day across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints in the 60s. Forecast has been complicated by overnight storms across Oklahoma, which sent an outflow boundary southwestward across North Texas that currently extends from Jacksboro to Fort Worth to north of Athens. Clouds and cooler air behind the outflow has lowered temperatures quite a bit - mainly in our northeast counties which were removed from the Extreme Heat Warning and replaced with a Heat Advisory for today. Locations further south towards the I-20 corridor including the Metroplex will still see ample sunshine and high heat index values, so not making any changes to those hazards attm. As far as rain chances, morning showers/storms have mostly dissipated. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds developing ahead of the outflow boundary from the southern Metroplex eastward into East Texas, and some isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon/evening east of I-35E and south of I-20 where low pops are warranted. Given the hot and dry inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, strong winds are possible with any storms that do develop this afternoon/evening. For tonight, earlier CAM and model runs were showing potential for some showers and storms in our north/northeast counties but have backed off in recent runs. Will keep low pops across our north for now but note these are highly uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast for Saturday is also of lower than usual confidence as model guidance has been showing varying solutions from run to run. In general, another hot day is anticipated due to the large upper level ridge over the Four Corners shifting eastward towards the Texas Panhandle. Highs will once again be well into the 100s for most of North and Central Texas, and have extended the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory through tomorrow accordingly. However, our region will remain in northerly flow on the east side of the upper ridge, and several models show a weak shortwave moving southward out of Oklahoma across our forecast area during the afternoon/evening. This could allow for some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across North Texas in the afternoon that would move southward into Central Texas during the evening. Therefore have expanded low pops across the entire CWA for tomorrow. Dependent on if/when any showers/storms do form on Saturday, this may create havoc with high temperatures and associated heat headlines. Once again, a very hot and dry troposphere would allow for any storms that do develop to produce strong gusty winds. From Sunday through Tuesday, 12Z guidance shows the H5 ridge building/shifted eastward closer to North and Central Texas, which should shut off any precip chances will heating us up a notch. In fact, one or more of these days could be the hottest of the summer as highs get close to the 110 mark. By Wednesday through the remainder of next week, the upper ridge begins to weaken somewhat while shifting back to the west, allowing for stronger northerly flow aloft across our region. This pattern shift will lower our high temperatures several degrees, while also allowing for low rain chances each day, especially our east half. Even so, it will still be hot and dry with highs in the upper 90s and 100s as we get closer to the end of August. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites early this morning and are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will veer SW this morning and back SE this evening, remaining light (<10KT) throughout. Thunderstorms may cross the Red River into North TX late this evening, but confidence is low in impacts to the D10 TRACON given the low chance of storm development and uncertainty in location. Timing has trended later to between 0-4Z. Model guidance is in greater agreement that, if storms do form, areas west of the Metroplex are more likely to be impacted. Thus, while still a low-confidence scenario, a temporary northerly wind shift due to outflow seems more likely than storms directly over the Metroplex sites. Since this wind shift is uncertain, dependent on storms, and late in the TAF period, we have opted to keep it unmentioned and will reassess in future TAF cycles. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0 Waco 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0 Terrell 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092- 100>104-115>121-130>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-105>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Hernandez