FXUS64 KFWD 230719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely today through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today. Additional extensions of heat headlines are expected through the middle of the week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dangerously hot weather conditions will develop this afternoon across the region with temperatures ranging between 104 to 109 degrees. Given the expansive reach of the ongoing heatwave, the Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded and now includes all of our North and Central Texas counties. Although we expect dangerously hot temperatures later today, we continue to see the development of scattered showers across North and Central Texas this early Sunday morning. This activity is currently being driven by a southward moving shortwave, moving over pooled moisture and residual boundaries from yesterday's activity to the north. The ongoing activity will continue to progress southward through the predawn hours and generate precipitation to a lucky few! There is the potential for a rogue lightning strike or two, however, the main sensible impact will be gusty outflow winds. As mentioned above, this afternoon will be a hot one as our mid- level high pressure system inches closer to our region. Increased subsidence will likely prevent the development of precipitation this afternoon, however, a few high clouds may still stream in from the north. Nonetheless, sufficient surface warming is expected areawide to increase the risk for heat-related illnesses. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you are outdoors, especially during peak heating hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our dangerously hot weather will persist through the first half of the week as the ridge axis to our west slowly progresses eastward and increases its influence over our sensible weather. Highs on Monday will likely be 2-4 degrees warmer compared to today (Sunday). With temperatures this hot, an extension of the current heat headlines is likely. There is some question regarding the extent of the 105+ temperatures across Central Texas tomorrow, therefore, this will continue to be analyzed through today and a decision on the particular heat product will be made early this afternoon. A slow downward trend in the heat will commence on Tuesday as the ridge once again begins its westward retreat. By Wednesday, the ridge will have shifted west enough to allow for shortwaves to once again move across North and Central Texas. With each passing shortwave, expect increased cloud cover, thus, reducing the amount of insolation. Additionally, low rain chances will once again be introduced to the forecast. At this time, any rain that does occur will be scattered at best. Most locations will likely remain dry continuing to worsen the ongoing drought conditions. Heading into the weekend, our weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant with the ridge axis remaining to our west. Minute east- west changes to the area of high pressure may allow for a few shortwaves to sneak into our region, however, nothing looks promising enough to warrant a mention of precipitation. Expect hot and mostly dry conditions to persist through the rest of this forecast period. Given the continued hot and mostly dry weather conditions in place, all of North and Central Texas will continue to experience weather conditions favorable for initial attack type fires. Low relative humidity and well-above normal temperatures will continue to further dry vegetation. The limiting factor through the rest of the week will be the generally light winds expected, reducing the probability of rapid fire spread. Continue to exercise caution if preforming activities that may generate sparks! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered, short-lived showers have developed early this morning along an outflow boundary from storms in the Big Country, oriented SW to NE, and behind a weak cold front, currently draped NW to SE across the Metroplex. Brief wind gusts of 15-25KT are possible with these showers, but we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR. Light (5-7KT) ESE winds are present behind the front, but wind direction should veer toward more typical southerly flow by sunrise as the front washes out. Meanwhile, light westerly winds have been observed behind the outflow boundary, which will soon near the western edges of the I-35 corridor. We will monitor the progression of this outflow for future amendments, if necessary, to wind direction at Metroplex sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 104 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 Denton 106 82 107 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 105 81 106 81 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 107 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 105 80 106 79 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 81 105 78 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 105 79 104 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 108 78 110 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez