FXUS65 KGGW 161931
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
131 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking
  on Saturday.

- A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures
  back closer to normal for next week. 

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

As a surface high exits our region, a weak surface trough will be
present to transport cooler temperatures into our CWA throughout 
today. A high pressure center aloft, causing a weak rex block 
configuration in the southwest to form will promote NW flow aloft 
for the time being. A ridge will then build and disrupt this NW 
flow aloft; this will cause veering winds to flow SW aloft will 
usher in temperatures to potentially reach the mid-70s on 
Saturday; upper-level perturbations may locally enhance forecast 
temperatures. 

The rex block setup in the southwest US will be short-lived as the
low ejects back into the main jet; the flow will not be conducive
to maintain warm temperatures without the influence of the ridge.
On Sunday, expect a drop in temperatures with a cold front Sunday
morning, coinciding northwesterly flow from Canada. High pressure
filters in behind the cold front, bringing warmer than average 
temperatures into Monday, onward. 

An upper-level trough enters the synoptic picture, come Tuesday. 
The trough digs southward throughout the western US, creating 
ridging conditions associated with SW flow aloft. Anticipate 
slightly warmer than average temperatures to advect from the 
southwestern US into our CWA. Expect dry, mostly sunny conditions
throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: 

- There is high confidence in conditions remaining unchanging
  throughout the forecast period, at least until Wednesday evening.

- Temperatures deviating higher in latest runs of NBM for next
  week.

- After Wednesday, NWP guidance begins to prompt obvious
  uncertainty between the GEFS and EPS, as for PoPs, heights, 
  and a wider spread of temperatures are seen. 

FINDLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

Discussion: Generally clear skies expected through the TAF cycle 
with some brief VFR clouds Saturday morning.

Wind: South to southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon
and evening then decreasing overnight. Winds in KGGW will
transition to a southeasterly direction tonight then veer back 
towards the west-southwest by afternoon. Some gusty conditions are
possible around the end of the forecast period, particularly in 
KSDY and KGDV. 

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible around the 
KGDV terminal between 07Z and 13Z Saturday morning with the 
highest confidence being between 09Z and 12Z. Areas around KSDY 
may also experience some LLWS between 04Z and 10Z, but confidence
is too low to be put into the TAF. 

KENZ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow