FXUS63 KGID 072018
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Hot Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely by evening (50-80%
  chance). Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind
  and large hail.

- Thursday will be noticably cooler (mainly 80s) with another
  chance for evening/overnight thunderstorms favoring areas
  south of I-80 (marginal risk of severe thunderstorms)

- Overall drier conditions by this weekend into next week and
  heating back up into the 90s by Sunday and at least several
  days thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summer Heat...

Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday 
afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will 
bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and 
cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in 
the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge 
(600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over 
the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains 
early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even
by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the 
lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to 
see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this 
upper ridge patter fully materializes. 


Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the
upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off
for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our
Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas
counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may
come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main
threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail 
threat as well. 

There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front
with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and
northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will
probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable
of dumping heavier 1" plus rainfall amounts. There is lower
confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However,
there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of
thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later
Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and
then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This
later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to 
our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts 
generally less than 1" but more widespread. 

The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM
(50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best
chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even
higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday
night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are forecast throughout this TAF period. 
Fair weather cumulus clouds are developing across the area, as 
southerly surface winds gust to near 20kts this afternoon. This 
evening, winds will back off to around 9-11kts, although some 
wind gusts up to 20kts may linger through this evening/tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely 
AVIATION...Scott