FXUS63 KGID 081103
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected this
  evening into tonight (mainly 7pm to midnight). Wind and hail
  are the primary threats. 

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday evening. A
  few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible,
  although coverage looks more spotty. 

- The main severe threat shifts south of the area for Friday,
  although a few isolated t-storms remain possible. 

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions return for the weekend
  and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently, showers and weak thunderstorms stretch from northwest
Kansas up through the Sandhills and are gradually moving
eastward. These should continue to weaken early this morning,
but a few light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out. This may
linger through midday as well, although little to no impacts are
expected. 

This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the
area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Isolated
storms are expected to develop near this front this evening,
with additional storms moving out of western KS/NE. Initially,
storms may pose a threat for severe hail, transitioning to a
wind threat as storms merge into one or more lines/clusters
(probably favoring the southern half of the area). Output from 
CAMs does not suggest "high-end" winds, but gusts near 60 MPH 
seem likely on at least a scattered basis. 

Thursday trends cooler as the cold front moves through. As such,
the primary t-storm threat shifts further south and west. 
Nevertheless, there is still a low chance for a few strong to
marginally severe storms as storms arrive from the west later
Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances continue Friday, 
although coverage should be more spotty, and the main severe 
threat appears to be to our south near a stalled frontal 
boundary. 

Upper level ridging will then promote a mostly dry and warming
trend through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summer Heat...

Hot weather with highs in the 90s will persist into Wednesday 
afternoon. A cold front sinking south Wednesday evening will 
bring thunderstorms to the area (Wednesday evening/night) and 
cooler weather for Thursday through Saturday (highs mainly in 
the 80s). A strong and unusually anomalous upper level ridge 
(600 decameters at 500 mb) is projected to initially build over 
the Rocky Mountains this weekend and slide east into the plains 
early next week. This will result in hot and dry conditions even
by July standards. Our projected highs early next week in the 
lower to mid 90s may be too cool and would not be surprised to 
see upper 90s and even some 100 degree temperatures if this 
upper ridge patter fully materializes. 


Wednesday and Thursday Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

We have two remaining decent chances to get moisture before the
upper ridge builds in and precipitation is likely to shut off
for awhile. The best chance for thunderstorms across our
Nebraska counties will be Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night. The best chance for thunderstorms across our Kansas
counties will be Thursday night. Unfortunately this rain may
come in the form of severe weather for some areas with the main
threat being the wind gusts, but also at least a marginal hail 
threat as well. 

There are currently two main areas to watch Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The first area will be along the cold front
with afternoon heating mainly across our northern and
northeastern areas where storms may initially develop, will
probably be more isolated, but will be slower moving and capable
of dumping heavier 1" plusrainfall amounts. There is lower
confidence in this initial thunderstorm development. However,
there is higher confidence that a more widespread line of
thunderstorms will develop west of our forecast area later
Wednesday evening associated with the upper level shortwave and
then track east across much of our area Wednesday night. This
later precipitation will bring mainly a severe wind threat to 
our area with some of these thunderstorms, rain amounts 
generally less than 1" but more widespread. 

The Thursday night rain chances are pretty high in the NBM
(50-70%), but storms may end up being further south. Best
chances for storms Thursday night will be south of I-80 and even
higher across north central Kansas. The severe threat Thursday
night should be more marginal than on Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

South to southwest winds are expected today with scattered mid
to high clouds. 

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
through the GRI/EAR area between 00-06Z. 

There is a low chance for stratus behind the thunderstorms
Thursday morning, although confidence in this occurring is too
low to warrant anything more than a SCT020 for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels