FXUS63 KGID 090833 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After morning showers/storms dissipate, dry conditions are expected through at least early evening. - Weakening storms arrive from the west late this evening. There is a low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe wind. - Isolated thunderstorms remain possible on Friday, but most areas will stay dry and severe weather is unlikely. - Mostly dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As of early this morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop east of Highway 281, with an additional cluster of storms between Lexington and North Platte slowly moving eastward. This convection has been more pesky than anticipated, but CAMs still suggest that it will mostly dissipate by around sunrise. That said, recent runs of the HRRR do suggest potential for an isolated storm or two to persist through at least mid-morning. At any rate, severe weather remains unlikely with this activity. After this activity clears, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the daytime (and most of the evening as well). Behind the cold front that moved through Wednesday evening, temperatures are expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees cooler than with a light northeasterly wind. Convection should blossom over the Nebraska panhandle down into eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening, gradually moving eastward with time. CAMs suggest this could reach our western zones by around 10pm, but should be on a weakening trend as it does so. Nevertheless, some marginally severe winds (and possibly some smaller hail) are possible, mainly in portions of northern Kansas and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. Friday looks to remain mostly dry, although an isolated storm or two remains possible, possibly aided by convective outflow from the previous night. Convective parameters could maybe support a few strong storms, but the overall threat for severe weather is low. Dry and gradually warmer weather is still on tap for the weekend and into next week. That said, the timing of the potentially warmest days continues to shift later into the week, and the most intense could actually end up remaining to our north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with the overnight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiple waves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantial the warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR Ceilings possible ~10-15z, otherwise VFR conditions expected during TAF period. SCT-BKN stratus will build over the area through sunrise. Some of this stratus may fall to MVFR, though the duration at KGRI/KEAR is uncertain. Due to the scattered nature of MVFR status, a TEMPO group was used to indicate this potential. Stratus clears by the mid-late morning hours, first at KEAR then KGRI, with high level clouds possible through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds become northerly, shifting the northeast Thursday morning, then to the east Thursday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis