FXUS63 KGID 161841 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning is in effect Tonight/Saturday Morning from 1-9AM as overnight lows are expected to dip below freezing for the first time this season (to as low as 26-32 degrees). - The locations that will have the overall coldest temperatures tonight as well as be the first to reach freezing tonight will be for areas concentrated towards the north and west portions of the area. - The forecast through Wednesday remains precip-free with the next faint signal for precipitation coming Thursday (30-40% chance). - Highs SAT-MON will mainly range the 60s with a warmup back into the 70s favored to take shape after Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today (Friday) & Tomorrow (Saturday)... A passing upper-level trough today (Friday) will soon bring height/pressure rises to the area with a ridge expected to follow in behind from the west. This feature will lead to regional subsidence that will both clear out skies and suppress any chance for precipitation through the weekend and for the first half of next week. At the surface, a massive near 1045 hPa high pressure center will continue to build in from off the High Plains/Rockies. As the surface pressure continues to rise today, winds speeds out of the north should only continue to slow down through the afternoon/night tonight. Light to calm winds (speeds <10MPH) could return as early as this evening. As this high pressure center passes through the area tonight, the light surface winds will swap to a south to southwesterly orientation ahead of Saturday. The main story tonight, however, will be for sub-freezing temperatures as lows settle in the upper 20s to low 30s across the entire region. As this will become the areas first freeze of the season, a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 1AM to 9AM tonight/Saturday morning. Though the warning does not go into effect until 1AM tonight, a few areas northwest of the Tri-Cities could possibly see temperatures drop quickly into the mid to low 30s shortly after sunset (common underneath light winds and clear skies). This freeze should only remain a one night issue as the southerly returning surface winds for Saturday (10-20 mph gusting as high as 30-35 mph in the afternoon) should bump up temperatures around 10 degrees higher than today. Highs for Saturday will look to range the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Next Week... Considerable confidence from the LREF members regarding the upper- level pattern next week lead us to conclude that this ridging pattern will continue on into the first half of next week. This feature will allow temperatures to retain in the 60s through Monday with a more notable warmup possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The long- range models continue to also keep the surface winds out of the south with little day-to-day change of surface broad high pressure to the east and broad low pressure to the west (channeling in the southerly warm air advection pattern). The next chance of precipitation does not come in the forecast until Thursday as the next upper-level trough/wave looks possible to slide in next. Though model guidance begins to wane in regards to the timing/intensity of the trough, at least some chance of precipitation looks to be plausible as this next disturbance approaches near the middle-to-end of next week. Details will continue to be refined as this event becomes closer into range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Gusty winds out of the north today will soon lighten as the evening approaches. Higher pressure moving through the area today and tonight will help these winds become light to even calm tonight between mainly 2-8z. Across this period in time, the surface winds will switch from a northerly to southwesterly (around 200 degrees) direction. Winds should gradually increase across the Saturday morning to early afternoon hours with speeds nearing 12-15kts and with gusts as high as 25-30kts around midday Saturday. Otherwise, the MVFR cloud base has seemed to scattered enough out this afternoon to prevent ceilings from redeveloping. VFR conditions should now prevail as cloud coverage is expected to remain minimal across the next 24hours. No precipitation is expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump