FXUS63 KGID 180540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly in
  areas along/east of Highway 281. All severe threats are
  possible (large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes),
  mainly in the 5pm-10pm window. 

- Portions of northern Kansas and perhaps the Highway 81
  corridor in Nebraska have one more chance for severe storms on
  Monday afternoon. The rest of the area will be noticably
  cooler with only a few showers expected. 

- Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected through midweek.
  Then we gradually trend warmer (with more rain chances) late 
  in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe
convection today and on Monday. 

Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold
front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point
expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The
eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late
afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range.
If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm
initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely
by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into
multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence
in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and
southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of
Hastings may not 

Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some
threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected
to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is
maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast
by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator
of tornado potential. 

A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening, 
but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the 
8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be
storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have 
potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing 
to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized 
flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties), 
although this will depend exactly on where storms setup.

Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with
potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to
be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions
of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe
storms in the 3-8pm timeframe. 

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for 
southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry
air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall
fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this 
week. 

Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures
remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back 
up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also 
return to the forecast by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

At least Low-end MVFR ceilings are expected to dominate the 6z 
TAF period as a low deck of broken to overcast stratus remains
lock in overhead. Ceiling will gradually lower through the
night, reaching high end IFR levels just after sunrise (12-14z).
KGRI may even drop into low-end IFR and LIFR between 16-20z. 

A period of drizzle to light rain is expected to impact both
terminals between 14 and 19z. There is a low-end chance for a
thunderstorm to be in the KGRI vicinity between 22-2z. 

Otherwise, winds will remain out of a northerly direction 
through the day (340-030 degrees) with speeds sustaining near 
15-20kts and gusting as high as 25-35kts. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump