FXUS63 KGID 181944
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of severe storms capable of producing large hail,
  damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado will be possible
  between 3-8PM today. The severe threat will mainly be for
  places near and east of HWY-81. 

- A few showers, areas of drizzle and non-severe thunderstorms
  will be possible this afternoon across areas outside of the 
  severe threat.

- Highs, following the passage of a cold front today, will peak
  in the 50s and 60s for much of the area. A few north central
  Kansas locations as well as far southeast Nebraska areas 
  could see highs in the 70s. 

- The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night
  (40-50% chance).

- Highs the rest of the week will stay in the 60s for
  Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, the low to mid 70s for Friday and
  the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving
force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central
Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going 
up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS,
as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf 
ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is 
forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer 
county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late 
afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to
the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the 
county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight
causing light rain and drizzle.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to
upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover
and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from 
forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early 
morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast 
to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are 
forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the 
northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are 
forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially
form.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central 
Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the 
region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. 
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle 
of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. 
Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 
70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from
Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program
and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a 
low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of
the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of
severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm 
this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the 
Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with
conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have 
high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. 
Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to
start out next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions will continue to across the much of the area
this afternoon through tonight. Low stratus could could cause 
to SHRA and DZ for the next few hours. The low stratus will 
clear west to east late tonight/early tomorrow morning bringing
back VFR conditions by tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance 
for so TSRA near KGRI this afternoon, but convection will likely
stay off to the east. Winds are forecast to remain out of the 
north through the period. Wind gusts are forecast to diminish 
tonight, but winds will remain elevated around 14 kts during the
overnight hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson