FXUS65 KGJT 072150 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 350 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tomorrow, favoring the terrain. - Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires. - Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY: Elevated moisture in the area is bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to eastern Utah and western Colorado. This activity has been favoring the higher terrain, but non- zero chances of precipitation exist across most of the CWA through the evening today. Precipitable water (PW) anomalies from this moisture advection will peak today, reaching only around 150% of normal. This morning's 18Z sounding at GJT reported 0.77in of PW, which falls around the 75th percentile when looking at GJT's PW climatology for today. This is an increase from yesterday's 18Z sounding, which reported 0.52in of PW. Considering the still very dry surface conditions, and the only marginally above normal midlevel moisture, a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated today. Despite this, many of today's showers and storms have already produced measurable precipitation. Most observations are only a few hundredths of an inch, but a handful of observations are over a tenth of an inch. Regardless, dry thunderstorms and the associated fire starts risk remains a concern. LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW: Tomorrow drier air begins to move back into the region, but lingering moisture will allow for showers and storms over the higher terrain. With the return of drier air, isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible. A slight uptick in afternoon wind gusts will lead to increased coverage of localized fire weather conditions, primarily in the Four Corners region. However, the gusts in these localized areas are forecast to be marginal. INCREASING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS: Coverage of critical fire weather conditions may increase on Thursday as marginal wind gusts become more widespread in the Four Corners region and southern high terrain. These marginal winds keep confidence too low to issue any fire weather products with this forecast package, so stay tuned to see how the wind gust forecast might evolve in future updates. Confidence in dry and hot conditions this weekend continues to increase. High pressure overhead will keep a dry airmass in place, resulting in widespread single digit minimum relative humidity values. Triple digit temperatures are forecast across the desert valley areas of eastern Utah and western Colorado beginning Friday, with the hottest temperatures occurring on Saturday and Sunday. The current weekend forecast for the Grand Valley includes potential for high temperatures to reach 105 degrees. So, be sure to monitor how the forecast evolves and remain weather aware as temperatures climb this week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the region. These storms should generally stay isolated and short- lived, but gusty outflow winds of 35 kts or more could travel long distances and impact several terminals throughout the afternoon. Smoky skies should be more limited in coverage today, but terminals near fires, namely MTJ, could see visibility drop periodically. In general, MVFR conditions should be very localized, but possible at terminals. Probability is too low to include in most TAF's though. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Today region-wide moisture is hitting its peak for most locations across the area. Despite the moisture, relative humidity values are still falling below 20% in some areas. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground today. Observed rainfall has generally be less than a tenth of an inch, but a some storms have been able to produce wetting rains. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track of an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Despite this, dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening today, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue tomorrow and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. High confidence in relatively mild winds should keep critical fire weather coverage on the more isolated end, generally favoring the Four Corners region. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GF AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT