FXUS65 KGJT 091805
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1205 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will shift northward tomorrow with areas north of 
  highway 50 favored.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT
  and southwest CO tomorrow afternoon.

- Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday
  afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of
  eastern Utah and western Colorado.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will move/build to 
the northeast over eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Sunday and 
expand east over the Plains going into next week. An upper level 
shortwave with a weak jet streak supporting it is moving across the 
region tonight is keeping isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms going mostly to the north of I-70, but there are a few 
moving through the central areas. These storms aren't producing much 
in the way of precip, but can kick out some gusts of 40-50 mph. Look 
for these storms to diminish through the overnight into the morning, 
but will redevelop around noon with diurnal heating. There will be 
few storms tomorrow than we had today and they will stay mostly to 
the north and will be ending by early evening due to subsidence 
under the high pressure pushing up from the southwest. With the high 
pressure moving into the region, near normal temperatures across the 
region tomorrow will warm to about five degrees above normal Friday, 
ten degrees above normal Saturday, and near record 15 degrees above 
normal Sunday. With high pressure over the region, the hot dry 
conditions will continue, but winds will be light to non existent 
bringing an end to the critical fire weather conditions. The high 
pressure does seem to pull moisture around it up into the Great 
Basin with models indicating a little moisture may be able to slip 
into the region under the high. This would generate afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms, but it too early to say how much moisture 
will make it into the region. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Orographic westerly flow will produce terrain based showers and
thunderstorms across most mountain groups this afternoon. A few
of these will drift over valleys and contribute gusty outflow
winds to airfields. Gusts of 45-55 mph can be expected adjacent
to decaying showers. Rainfall will be minimal and thus
breakpoint ceilings and/or visibility are not expected to impact
terminals. Skies will clear back out this evening and lighter down
valley drainage winds will resume after dark. 

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
     evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023.
UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
     evening for UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT