FXUS65 KGJT 150428
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight,
  with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado
  mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. 

- Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days
  with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across
  northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday
  night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through
  Friday morning.

- Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the
  weekend, with a gradual warming trend to near-normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE:

Current satellite imagery indicates that the center of the low 
pressure that has brought widespread mountain snow and valley rain 
is currently located over the Central Divide mountains, continuing 
to track northeastward. Moisture wrapping around the backside of 
this low is keeping valley rain and higher elevation snow showers 
going across much of central- and north-western Colorado this 
evening. This has resulted in sloppy road conditions over mountain 
passes, so be cautious and prepared for winter driving if out 
travelling tonight. The low is expected to reach the eastern 
Colorado Plains by daybreak Thursday, with the plume of wrap-around 
moisture finally moving east of the Divide. An additional 1-3 inches 
of snow will be possible across the central and northern Divide 
ranges, with a trace to an inch for mainly the northern San Juans. 
Some higher snow amounts are possible along the Uncompahgre River 
Gorge south of Ouray, as this area tends to fare better than 
guidance indicates under these types of northerly flow, wrap-around 
moisture events. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for 
elevations above 9500 feet in the central and northern Divide 
mountains through 6AM Thursday morning. 

DRYING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

As the low tracks east into the plains, energy in the base of the 
parent trough splits off and begins to retrograde into Southern 
California. Between these two features, high pressure noses in from 
the west, bringing drier, quieter weather to eastern Utah and 
western Colorado. By Friday, the retrograded area of low pressure 
remains stationary across SoCal, with high pressure to the north, 
creating a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates 
the eastern CONUS. This will keep conditions stagnant for several 
days, with the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah 
and western Colorado not expected until early to mid-next week. 
Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this 
next system, so stay tuned. In the meantime, clear skies and a much 
drier airmass are expected for the Western Slope. Temperatures will 
start out 5-10 degrees below normal, but gradually warm to near 
normal by the weekend. Clearing skies and this much colder airmass 
in place will promote effective radiational cooling Thursday night 
into Friday morning, especially across northwest Colorado and into 
some of the higher elevation valleys in the central-western and 
southwestern Colorado. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas 
from late Thursday night through late Friday morning. Widespread 
temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 
20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor 
plumbing, now is a good time to take the necessary precautions to 
protect them.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue into the overnight 
period along with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring 
at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. 
Fog may develop overnight especially in the mountain valleys but
confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below 
ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours 
with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin
to improve Thursday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning 
     for COZ001-002-005-008-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009-
     010-012-013.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT