FXUS65 KGJT 152346
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
546 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming
  to seasonable temperatures this weekend.

- Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA,
  with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph.

- Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across
  northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday
  and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time
  periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

TODAY:

The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has 
since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally 
dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. 
Additionally, today will be another day of below normal 
temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come 
the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost 
part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts 
will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight 
and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective 
radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night 
into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across 
northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in 
the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous 
Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. 
Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping 
as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or 
outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions 
to protect them. 

FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND:

By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with 
an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will 
create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the 
eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for 
the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal 
precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday 
will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing 
in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been 
issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. 
Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four 
Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to 
exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some 
discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at 
the moment. 

Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and 
western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. 
Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this 
next system, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Gusty winds around 25 kt remain over eastern Utah. Expect the 
winds to decrease overnight for the remainder of the TAF 
period. Once again, fog is possible during the overnight and 
early morning hours in mountain valley sites such as KTEX, KGUC,
and KHDN but confidence in exact timing and location is low. 
Otherwise expect clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for 
     COZ001-002-005-008-023.
     Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT 
     Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT