FXUS65 KGJT 181730
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A
  Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta,
  Elkhead, and Park Mountains.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the Central and
  Lower Yampa River Basin Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze
  highlights are in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

WET AND COLD MONDAY:

On Monday, the low which has been driving this active weather 
pattern will be moving overhead. As temperature take a dive near
sunrise behind the associated cold front, near-surface 
conditions will rapidly moisten up. This should be plenty enough
to promote another day of widespread precipitation. In spite of
the frontal boundary being draped across the CWA, forcing is 
overall unimpressive and instability is minimal due to the 
anticipated morning cloud cover region-wide. So look for 
Monday's stormy weather to be more stratiform. A few discrete 
storms cannot be ruled out though, particularly later in the 
afternoon as cloud cover disperses to a degree.

With temperatures dropping though, our focus is shifting away 
from severe weather potential towards another round of snowfall 
for our higher elevation locations. Snow levels are generally 
high (>9,000 ft) across the area, though further north from the 
eastern Uintas to the northern Colorado mountains, where cooler 
air has already been settling in, snow levels are expected to 
drop further (>6,000 ft). Accumulations could near a foot along 
higher elevation portions of US-191 in the Uintas, and Rabbit 
Ears Pass has ~50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation. 
Elsewhere in the CWA, snow totals will be lesser, but most 
mountain ranges are expected to sit at 2-6" of snow by the time 
the sun rises on Tuesday.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

This frigid push brings more than just another round of late 
season snow, but will also cause more freeze concerns. The 
coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. Much of the 
Yampa Valley River Basin is expected to see a hard freeze as a 
result during this period. Though temperatures begin to warm 
back up beyond Tuesday, Wednesday morning will also likely see 
below freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a 
freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Rain and snow showers continue to impact much of the region this
morning. Cigs at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX, and KHDN are expected
to be below ILS breakpoints through most of the afternoon.
Precipitation could drop vis to MVFR conditions or lower at
higher elevation terminals. Gusty winds are also expected to
persist through the early evening, reaching 20-30 knots at most
terminals. By 00Z, most storms will have cleared out, and VFR 
conditions should be restored region-wide by 06Z at the latest.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     COZ001-002.
     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 
     for COZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     UTZ024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT