FXUS65 KGJT 181824
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1224 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow continues through this evening. A Winter Weather
  Advisory remains in effect for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and
  Park Mountains.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the lower basins
  of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday
  morning. Freeze highlights are in effect.

- Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally
  reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER:

The cold front has finally pushed through most of eastern Utah and 
western Colorado, with a significantly cooler airmass filling in. 
Temperatures today will run 15-25 degrees below normal, feeling more 
like March than May. The widespread rainfall that accompanied the 
frontal passage is transitioning to a more convective mode this 
afternoon, although limited instability will keep a lid on 
thunderstorm development. Look for gusty winds and light to moderate 
rainfall with showers this afternoon. Snow showers will also be 
possible at the higher elevations, and Winter Weather Advisories 
remain in effect for the Eastern Uintas and Park and Elkhead ranges 
through this evening. 

Activity will taper off this evening as drier air works in under 
northwesterly flow. This will also lead to skies clearing from west 
to east, resulting in freeze concerns, discussed below. After a cold 
start tomorrow, temperatures start to rebound as flow aloft turns 
southwesterly and warm air advection kicks in. That said, we remain 
below normal tomorrow and Wednesday, before finally reaching late-
May norms on Thursday. Light mountain showers will be possible each 
afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be quiet and mostly sunny. 
The next chance for precipitation comes late in the week, as a quick-
moving wave clips northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

With cold air advection ongoing and skies expected to clear out 
tonight, freeze potential remains a concern. The coldest conditions 
will occur on Tuesday morning. The Yampa River Basin and the eastern 
Uinta Basin are most likely to see sub-freezing temperatures by 
daybreak tomorrow, though the Yampa Basin is most likely to see a 
hard freeze. Freeze Warnings are in effect for these zones from 
midnight tonight through 10AM tomorrow morning. Wednesday morning 
will also likely see sub-freezing temperatures in the Yampa River 
Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Rain and snow showers continue to impact much of the region this
morning. Cigs at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX, and KHDN are expected
to be below ILS breakpoints through most of the afternoon.
Precipitation could drop vis to MVFR conditions or lower at
higher elevation terminals. Gusty winds are also expected to
persist through the early evening, reaching 20-30 knots at most
terminals. By 00Z, most storms will have cleared out, and VFR 
conditions should be restored region-wide by 06Z at the latest.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     COZ001-002.
     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 
     for COZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     UTZ024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT