FXUS65 KGJT 190013
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
613 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the lower basins
  of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday
  morning. Freeze highlights are in effect.

- Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally
  reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Some snow showers will continue over the eastern Uintas and Park
Range but do not expect significant accumulations so dropped 
them both. Cold temperatures still remain on track overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER:

The cold front has finally pushed through most of eastern Utah and 
western Colorado, with a significantly cooler airmass filling in. 
Temperatures today will run 15-25 degrees below normal, feeling more 
like March than May. The widespread rainfall that accompanied the 
frontal passage is transitioning to a more convective mode this 
afternoon, although limited instability will keep a lid on 
thunderstorm development. Look for gusty winds and light to moderate 
rainfall with showers this afternoon. Snow showers will also be 
possible at the higher elevations, and Winter Weather Advisories 
remain in effect for the Eastern Uintas and Park and Elkhead ranges 
through this evening. 

Activity will taper off this evening as drier air works in under 
northwesterly flow. This will also lead to skies clearing from west 
to east, resulting in freeze concerns, discussed below. After a cold 
start tomorrow, temperatures start to rebound as flow aloft turns 
southwesterly and warm air advection kicks in. That said, we remain 
below normal tomorrow and Wednesday, before finally reaching late-
May norms on Thursday. Light mountain showers will be possible each 
afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be quiet and mostly sunny. 
The next chance for precipitation comes late in the week, as a quick-
moving wave clips northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

With cold air advection ongoing and skies expected to clear out 
tonight, freeze potential remains a concern. The coldest conditions 
will occur on Tuesday morning. The Yampa River Basin and the eastern 
Uinta Basin are most likely to see sub-freezing temperatures by 
daybreak tomorrow, though the Yampa Basin is most likely to see a 
hard freeze. Freeze Warnings are in effect for these zones from 
midnight tonight through 10AM tomorrow morning. Wednesday morning 
will also likely see sub-freezing temperatures in the Yampa River 
Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Some showers and midlevel ceilings persist at this hour but
precip will continue to drift northeastward this evening and 
overnight. Ceilings will lift as well though will likely 
persist for KHDN, KEGE and KASE. Despite that, VFR conditions 
will remain predominant though some brief MVFR can't be 
completely ruled out either. A few gusts of 20 to 30 kts will 
remain possible under and near these showers but should die down
after 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for 
     COZ001-002.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 
     for COZ001-002.

UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday 
     for UTZ024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGJT
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT