FXUS65 KGJT 192323
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of
  northwest Colorado tomorrow morning. Freeze Warnings are in
  effect.

- Temperatures will start to warm today onward, reaching above 
  normal temperatures by Sunday.

- Precipitation is periodically possible through the week, 
  mostly over the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

The ongoing active pattern shifts to ridging and high pressure 
this weekend. The weather will generally be dry and quiet as
this transition occurs, with the exception of over the central 
and southern mountains tonight through tomorrow afternoon, and 
across the very northern part of our CWA Thursday. Tonight 
through tomorrow afternoon rain and snow is possible in the 
central and southern mountains thanks to some lingering moisture
and energy from a shortwave trough. Warming temperatures and 
limited moisture will keep any snow accumulations very minimal, 
and only at the highest elevations. On Thursday another trough 
propagates across the area, bringing lift and weak moisture 
advection to the northern half of our CWA. Some deterministic 
models are suggesting a slightly more southerly track for this 
trough, which would bring precipitation chances south of I-70, 
but the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow 
chances primarily in the more northern areas. After Thursday 
pieces of energy and moisture in the flow may support some 
terrain based afternoon convection each day. 

Tonight and tomorrow morning the potential for below freezing  
low temperatures persists in northwest Colorado. As such, Freeze
Warnings remain in effect for overnight tonight. Today's high 
temperatures will be well below normal, but the upcoming pattern
shift will raise high temperatures to above normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Gusty winds are coming to an end at most terminals as we move into 
the evening hours. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven 
overnight and into the morning hours, before gusty (20-25 kts) winds 
pick up again Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are expected to 
develop at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX Wednesday morning into the 
afternoon. There is a possibility for cigs to fall below ILS 
breakpoints where shower activity is present. Isolated 
thunderstorms will also be possible during this time period at 
those sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT