FXUS63 KGLD 071911 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 111 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday through Thursday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 111 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 This afternoon into the evening, as the 500 mb ridge axis stars to move out of the CWA, an 850 mb low coming out of the Northern Rockies is expected to sweep a weak cold front over the CWA. This will lead to some scattered storms moving into the CWA from the northwest. We expect these storms to be decaying as they reach the northwestern CWA around 0-3Z. Precipitation looks to fully end by 6- 9Z. Most likely hazards with these storms will be winds in the 40-55 kts range, and hail up to around 1 inch. The wind may lead to blowing dust, creating reduced visibility. From today's convection, localized plumes of dust are the more likely dust threat, versus a haboob. Wednesday is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. The potential for severe winds increases with tomorrow, and if a bowing segment is able to form, winds up around 70 MPH are likely. This increases the blowing dust threat, and both plumes and a haboob are possible from the thunderstorm winds tomorrow afternoon and evening. The hail threat increases, but shear looks to remain very low. Most likely hail will be less than 1.25 inches, but an exceptionally strong storm could produce 2 inch hail. There is massive disagreement in coverage for storms tomorrow. One solution has storms entering the western fringe of the CWA, turning southbound, and decaying. This would keep hazards limited to west of U.S. 385 and end the threat by 5Z. Conversely, the other option is the storms form into a broken QLCS and move east-southeast across the CWA. This increases the wind threat, and introduces an extremely low flooding risk as trailing, back-building storms would have a 10% chance of occurring. This second scenario could have convection persisting until around 9Z in the CWA. Besides the potential for back-building storms, we are not expecting a lot of precipitation to come from these storms today and tomorrow. There will be a threat of dry lightning to start fires with these storms. However, we are not expecting any critical fire weather conditions as RH values remain above criteria. Temperatures throughout the short-term are still expected to warm into the 90s with lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Starting the extended period Thursday, the main focus is for another threat for showers and storms as well driven by a sagging weak cold front through the afternoon hours. Guidance also suggests that a 500mb shortwave will accompany the front and there is also further upper level support as a weak 250mb jet moves across the Rockies. The 250mb jet has strengthened a bit from what was seen yesterday. QPF signals indicate storm development off of the Front Range and progressing onto the Plains with it entering NW Kansas around 00Z based on current timing. Initial storms would favor large hail but GFS, NAM and ECMWF all support straight line hodographs so with the forcing and wind shear around 30-35 knots, think with eventual mergers storms will cluster into a eastward moving severe MCS with time. Cold pool propagation parameters are being met as well with ample MUCAPE, weak and weak low level winds. NAM and ECMWF also both show some subtle 500 and 700mb diffluence out ahead of the potential MCS which suggests that some leading edge convection may be on the table as well. The big question will be how far east will this survive and be potentially severe as the ECMWF doesn't show a 700mb jet during the evening but the GFS does. If the GFS does verify then some backbuilding potential for eastern portions of the area could lead to some flooding threat but Corfidi vectors increase during this time which would limit that threat. Friday, Some guidance does indicate another weak shortwave off of the Front Range with some qpf signal being seen for areas south of I70. There could be some severe threat with this but currently looks very low with marginal CAPE values and very weak shear in place. Did notice that corfidi vectors are very slow with this potential cluster. ECMWF continues to keep the qpf signal south of the CWA however. Through the weekend and into next week there is very good agreement for a large high pressure system to begin to develop across the western CONUS and spread over the Plains. If this were to occur then hot temperatures are forecast to be in place especially if a near 595 dam sets up over the region. This would support the potential for 100+ degree temperatures. Guidance today is a bit less aggressive on the intensity of the high and has it more broad which would help keep temperatures a little lower than what was being seen yesterday. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Thankfully current dew points are forecast to be in the 40s to low 60s across the area which would help keep the heat indices close to or below the air temperature. However there is the potential for a prolonged period of hot to very hot temperatures for the area. Precipitation chances would also dwindle as well due to the subsidence of the high pressure if it is indeed centered on top of the CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will continue to be southeasterly with gusts in the 20-30 kts range. We are expecting a cold front this evening to remain west of the TAF sites, which would bring in showers and some chaotic winds. We are not expecting impacts to either of the airports, but between 3-9Z, there is a 10-20% chance of northwesterly winds and precipitation. **KGLD VISIBILITY: Parts are on order, there is no estimated return to service at this time. Until then, amendments for visibility should not be expected for KGLD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...CA