FXUS63 KGLD 081850 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1250 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough. Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard. Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z. In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight. Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning. As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expectedand there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ***Thursday/Friday*** Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time. The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less. ***Saturday-Tuesday*** Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...CA