FXUS63 KGLD 091730 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storm activity has lowered across the area with the main gust front line clearing the area to the east, along with the surface low center east of the area. There may still be a few storms in Southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties through the night due to a cluster of storms that persisted near North Platte. It is unlikely these storms would be severe, but they could produce small hail and winds gusting to 50 mph. Parts of Eastern Colorado could drop into the 50s, while the rest of the area stays in the 60s with dewpoints in the 60s and cloud cover. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, the upper level pattern is forecast to have the area in weak northwest flow. With the lack of features initially, winds should be a bit on the lighter side at or below 15 mph. The winds will likely vary a bit in direction until a low develops west of the area later in the day. Skies should clear through the morning and allow temperatures to warm to around 90 by the mid afternoon hours. By the mid to late afternoon hours, storms are forecast to develop along the Front range and Palmer Divide. This looks to be caused by the surface low pressure deepening along the Front Range and a shortwave moving through the upper northwest flow. With storm development likely west of the area, storms should cluster or form lines as they move into the area. Some of the earliest guidance suggests parts of Eastern Colorado could see storms around 3pm, but it will likely be closer to 5-6pm again. These storms may be severe as MUCAPE is forecast to be around 1500-2000 J/kg again along with mid-level lapse rates around 8.0-8.5 C/km. The main difference that may allow storms to be a bit stronger and have a higher chance of holding together is that 0-6km shear could be 40-45 kts with the deepening surface low and shortwave both increasing the flow in the lower and mid- levels. Even with this, storms would likely still be more of a wind threat due to the cluster/linear storm mode that is forecast. The max speeds should be closer to 75 as long as storms are organized, with gusts generally around 55-65 mph. Otherwise, wind gusts would be similar to today with a few 60s, but largely in the 40s and 50s. The better shear does increase the max hail size to around 1.75-2.00 inches, though the more linear/cluster mode would likely lead to more smaller or marginally severe hail. LCLs are forecast to be high again, likely inhibiting a chance for tornadoes. There is a very low chance for flash flooding, especially as storms first cluster and may train over an area. If this occurs, rain totals could reach 1-3 inches and maybe allow for some small flash flooding. If the clusters/lines move consistently though, flash flooding is unlikely. This is currently the forecast, with the clusters moving into Eastern Colorado around 5-6pm and moving steadily east through the area. Storms would likely end around 2- 3am, unless they gust out again which would put the ending time closer to midnight. Once the storms clear, another night with light winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s is forecast. Skies should clear in the west, but may remain cloudy for eastern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 00-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-14 knots this afternoon and evening will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms) and remain light/variable through the rest of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...Vincent