FXUS63 KGLD 091930 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 130 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overview: Modest westerly flow aloft will persist over the Tri- State Area, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Light ESE-SE flow will prevail in the lower levels (surface to 850 mb), on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in CO. Today-Tonight: Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to mid 60's, coolest in eastern CO. Guidance suggests that light upslope flow and modest DPVA associated with small amplitude disturbances in westerly flow aloft will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (west of a line from Limon to Akron, CO and Sidney, NE) by 2-4 pm MDT this afternoon, and that said activity will grow upscale into clusters over eastern CO (~5-6 pm MDT) and ultimately evolve into a linear mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that sweeps eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (~6-10 pm MDT). Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated/discrete storms during initial development in CO late this afternoon. Despite weak low-level flow and modest mid-level flow, significant and/or widespread damaging wind is possible if linear organization results in the development of a consolidated cold pool (low confidence worst case scenario). Fri-Fri night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions will largely be a function of mesoscale phenomena, namely.. where, and to what degree/extent, environmental conditions are altered by convection this evening and early Fri morning. In a stagnant synoptic pattern with weak low-level flow, convective overturning/stabilization in the wake of an MCS tends to decrease convective potential (in the same area) the following day. In this case, high resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale high in the wake of the aforementioned MCS will shunt diurnal thunderstorm development southward to the Raton Mesa, southeast CO and southwest KS.. south of Highway 40. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed bythreat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 00-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-14 knots this afternoon and evening will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms) and remain light/variable through the rest of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...Vincent