FXUS63 KGLD 092202 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 402 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening for western portions of the area, mainly along and west of Highway 27. - A few severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overview: Modest westerly flow aloft will persist over the Tri- State Area, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Light ESE-SE flow will prevail in the lower levels (surface to 850 mb), on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in CO. Today-Tonight: Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to mid 60's, coolest in eastern CO. Guidance suggests that light upslope flow and modest DPVA associated with small amplitude disturbances in westerly flow aloft will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (west of a line from Limon to Akron, CO and Sidney, NE) by 2-4 pm MDT this afternoon, and that said activity will grow upscale into clusters over eastern CO (~5-6 pm MDT) and ultimately evolve into a linear mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that sweeps eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (~6-10 pm MDT). Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated/discrete storms during initial development in CO late this afternoon. Despite weak low-level flow and modest mid-level flow, significant and/or widespread damaging wind is possible if linear organization results in the development of a consolidated cold pool (low confidence worst case scenario). Fri-Fri night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions will largely be a function of mesoscale phenomena, namely.. where, and to what degree/extent, environmental conditions are altered by convection this evening and early Fri morning. In a stagnant synoptic pattern with weak low-level flow, convective overturning/stabilization in the wake of an MCS tends to decrease convective potential (in the same area) the following day. In this case, high resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale high in the wake of the aforementioned MCS will shunt diurnal thunderstorm development southward to the Raton Mesa, southeast CO and southwest KS.. south of Highway 40. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper level ridge currently extending west from the Desert Southwest into the Pacific Ocean will strengthen over the Four Corners Region and shift/expand north during this part of the forecast. Any storm activity over the mountains will be directed to the north instead of the east. This will put the Plains and Great Basin under the dome of high pressure. The ridge will cause an approaching upper level trough to be deflected to Southern Canada. Highs will be in the 90s and lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is near normal. However lows in the low 70s may move in over the eastern part of the forecast area toward the end of next week. Heat index values will be near normal for this time of year. However heat index values may increase over the east toward the end of next week if lows do only cool into the low 70s. Relative humidity values will fall to around 20% over East Central CO by the middle of next week, with higher relative humidity values to the east. This is still above fire weather concerns, but something to be aware of given the drying fuels in Colorado. Wildfire smoke may affect the eastern part of Colorado depending on where the ridge is centered. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with a scattered thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening, mainly between ~01-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-13 knots this aft-eve will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms). Variable to ESE winds at 5-10 knots are expected to prevail throughout the day on Friday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...Vincent