FXUS63 KGLD 161943 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 143 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and surface analysis show a building ridge west of the Rocky Mountains and north-northwesterly winds at the surface. Clear skies and breezy conditions continue for the county warning area (CWA) through the afternoon with gusts around 30 mph possible. Clear skies continue overnight with overnight low temperatures forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire CWA through Saturday morning. After sunrise, a warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper-level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens for the western CWA. Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 60s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s for the area. Sunday continues to be warm with high temperatures again forecast in the 60s to 70s. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s. Skies will be clear with breezy conditions possible for the eastern CWA. Wind gusts around 25 mph are possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning. Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Conditions will be breezy and mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 25 knots possible through around sundown. Winds will remain light and variable until around 06Z when they become more out of the southwest. Light winds will remain mostly out of the southwest, but pick up towards the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots possible. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades