FXUS63 KGLD 181856 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1256 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light rain showers through early evening. - Frost possible Tuesday morning west of Highway 25 as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds, drizzle and light rain showers covering much of the area this morning will slowly erode on the southern edge through this afternoon, with the latest HRRR showing clearing as far north as Interstate 70 by 22z. Afterwards, the clouds will push south again and they will persist through much if not the entire night. Deepening low pressure in southwest Kansas will result in northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph generally south of Interstate 70 between 00-06z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Chance for any light showers will end with the wind shift. Due to the persistent clouds and wind, temperatures will likely only drop into the low to mid 30s for lows, so issued a Frost Advisory to account for that. Clouds will finally dissipate Tuesday morning leaving a mostly sunny and milder day with highs mainly in the 60s. Next shortwave trough will come out of Colorado Tuesday night, and combined with surface winds turning to east and southeast will result in scattered light rain showers. Overnight precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. The showers will continue to increase in coverage Wednesday morning as additional shortwave energy moves out of Colorado in the persistent southwest flow aloft. Weak instability in the afternoon is limited to the immediate vicinity of the Front Range and not expecting any thunder here. QPF remains light through the day on Wednesday, but there is a modest increase Wednesday night, with SREF/NBM means showing generally up to a quarter of an inch, but some deterministic output suggesting locally up to a half inch or more. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with the clouds and precipitation, coolest in Colorado. Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA. Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end. Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR will continue through most of the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK due to low ceilings and occasional showers/drizzle. Surface winds will shift to northerly late this afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts through early evening, then gradually diminishing the rest of the night. Not expecting a return to VFR until Tuesday morning when ceilings will lift. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041- 042. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024