FXUS63 KGRB 080623 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. - Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops, thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29 with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29 corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000 J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the night into Thursday. The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected late this evening, with increasing mid and high clouds. Some patchy fog may develop for a time as dewpoints remain the mid 60s in spots. As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from 09Z-16Z, with an additional round(s) Wednesday afternoon/evening. Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within the shower/storm activity. Lingering showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday evening. Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts overnight, then become south to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts. Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday afternoon and evening behind the front. Fog is likely late Wednesday evening into early Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Bersch