FXUS63 KGRB 081137
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
637 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with
  heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across
  central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized
  flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an 
  isolated tornado are also possible.

- Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next
  week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on 
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into
northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings
with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move
into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI
after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing
south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could
impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops,
thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the 
afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some
questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was
seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted
the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest 
HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29 
with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29 
corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the 
Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley
east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000 
J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support 
severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an 
isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms 
will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and 
a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the 
night into Thursday. 

The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon
across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not
expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next
week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early
next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the 
potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high 
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Showers and storms, mainly north of Highway 29, were moving across
the area early this morning. To the south of Highway 29, isolated 
showers and storms were noted at the 12z TAF issues. This trend
should continue through mid morning. Additional showers and storms
are expected to later this morning into this evening. Strong or
severe storms are possible with strong/damaging winds across
central and east-central WI, especially along and south of Highway
29. For tonight, rain showers and a few storms should continue.
The rain should end across the far while lingering Thursday across 
central and east-central WI. Areas of fog and low stratus deck in
the IFR category is anticipated across much of the area. There is
a chance of showers and storms over central and east-central WI
into Thursday afternoon. CIGS should gradually improve on
Thursday. 

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg